Market Analysis

Keep up to date with the latest news in the global financial market, gold, silver and macroeconomic data analysis and information, prepared for Kinesis by leading precious metals market analysts. Your in-depth insight into the world of investing, trading and managing your gold and silver capital. Keep track of the current gold and silver price movements on the exchange, the short-term and long-term physical gold price predictions and most up-to-date price charts with explanation, updated every Monday, Wednesday and Friday. Save, trade and invest your gold and silver with Kinesis.

Gold & Silver Market Analysis for Monday 1st November

Kinesis Money Macroeconomic Analysis On the agenda for this week, central banks will hold their respective meetings, during which time, there will be plenty of macroeconomic data to consider. Tomorrow will see the start of the long-awaited Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, to be finalised on Wednesday with the press release.  This week, Jerome Powell is expected to announce the beginning of tapering, with the process set to start next month. It appears that investors were expecting this move, anxious to discover further details about the timing and the pace of the process. There will also be an indication of the first interest rate hike, which is expected by the end of the first quarter (Q1) of 2022. During the week, US labour data will be released, beginning with the ADP National Employment Report on Wednesday, followed by non-farm payrolls and jobless claims to be reported on Friday. The Federal Reserve will be closely monitoring this data, so as to decide the timing and the next steps of monetary policy. The Bank of Japan’s monetary report will be published this week. In addition, the Reserve Bank of Australia’s decision on the country’s interest rate is expected to stay steady, at a historical low of 0.10%. On Thursday, the focus will be on the Bank of England’s meeting. Last month, all 9 members of the board voted to keep rates the same, at a percentage of 0.10%. The majority of analysts are now forecasting a disproportionate split of 6-3, voting in favour of keeping rates unchanged. This will prepare the financial markets for a first-rate hike in the next meeting. Kinesis Money Gold Analysis On Friday we saw a significant rebound of the US dollar, with the EUR/USD trade pair losing 1% in just a few hours, while the dollar index jumped above 94. As predicted, this sharp rebound of the greenback had a significant impact on the gold price as well, pushing some investors to sell their bullion. Gold lost 0.5%, declining to 1,785, however, the major trend has not yet changed. The gold price remains above the first two key zones, placed at $1,770 and $1,750. Only a clear fall below $1,745 – 1,750 will change the current lateral trend. A recovery of $1,800 would be positive, while a stronger bullish signal could be witnessed with a clear surpass of $1,820 – 1,830, leaving space for further rallies. Moreover, there are two main market drivers still to come this week: the FOMC meeting and the release of non-farm payrolls. Kinesis Money Silver Analysis The silver price is being traded just below $24, with the bullish trend seen over the last few weeks now wavering, since the price was unable to rebound. Silver 4h Chart - ($/oz) - Kinesis Exchange A signal of weakness will be witnessed if the price falls below $23.7, while a surpass of the resistance zones placed at 24.3 and 24.5 could open a path for new recoveries. This would confirm the positive impulses seen in October and increase the chances of silver surpassing the recent peak of $24.9. Carlo Alberto De Casa is an external Market Analyst for Kinesis Money. He also writes as a technical analyst for the Italian newspaper La Stampa. Carlo Alberto provides regular commentary for UK outlets including the BBC, Telegraph, the Independent Bloomberg & Reuters. He is also a commentator for CNBC Italy. He worked for Bloomberg as their Equity Research Fundamental Analyst before joining brokerage ActivTrades in 2011 to specialize in currency markets and commodities. In 2014 he published a book on gold and the gold market, followed by a new updated edition in 2018. This report is not an offer of or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Any material provided does not have regard to the specific investment objective and financial situation of any person who may receive it. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.

Carlo Alberto De Casa
Carlo Alberto De Casa

01/11/2021

Gold & Silver Market Analysis for Friday 29th October

Kinesis Money Macroeconomic Analysis The European Central Bank’s monthly meeting confirmed interest rates were unchanged and at a historical low, which was to be expected by the financial markets. Despite this, the Eurozone’s currency jumped up on the Forex markets.  In fact, investors' expectations regarding the ECB’s monetary policies are now more hawkish, already forecasting that the rates will hike in 2022. Christine Lagarde, president of the European Central Bank, initially intended to be dovish. However, in response to the market reaction, her comments were certainly not as dovish as expected. At the very least, they were not forceful enough to convince investors that rates will remain steady next year.  This is the one explanation for the quick rally of the Euro. Although, another factor that should also be considered is the US Gross Domestic Product (GDP: the value of all goods and services produced in the US) for the third quarter of 2021. This GDP announced at 2% did not reach the forecast, being well below the 2.7–2.8% prediction, which was another negative driver for the US Dollar. This can be seen through the dollar index, which has fallen from 93.8 to 93.2, before recovering in just the last few hours to 93.45. This week will end with a focus on Germany’s GDP and, particularly, Eurozone inflation figures, with both figures set to be published this morning. This afternoon (13:30 UK time, 14:30 CET), Canada’s GDP will be released. Next week, there will be plenty of events detailing the global macroeconomic situation, with the main focus on the United States. The Federal Open Market Committee, the Federal Reserve’s monetary committee, will have a crucial meeting on Nov 2nd-3rd. Next Wednesday, the US ADP (payroll data) will be released, while Friday the 5th will see the non-farm payrolls unveiled. In addition, the UK will release the PMI (purchasing managers index), and the Bank of England will meet in the forthcoming week. Kinesis Money Gold Analysis The gold price is being traded just below $1,800, with a small decline from the closure of yesterday’s session. Volatility remains modest, showing that gold is in a consolidation phase, while bullion confirms the recovery signals seen during the last few weeks. 4h Gold chart ($/g) from Kinesis Exchange After the ECB meeting, investors’ attention is now focused on the upcoming Federal Reserve’s meeting next week (2-3 Nov) and the US labour data that will be announced. The technical picture remains unchanged, with a first support zone placed at $1,770, while much higher volumes are located on the following key level of $1,745 – 1,750. A clear surpass of $1,820-1,830 will offer a positive signal, with space for further recoveries and a medium-term target of $1,900. In a few words, gold is moving in a largely lateral channel between $1,750 and 1,830. A break-up or breakdown of one of these levels could offer a clear directional signal for bullion. Kinesis Money Silver Analysis The silver price is closing the month on a weaker note, as the spot price has fallen to the support zone of $24 again. After a couple of weeks of strong recovery, there is some pressure on silver. The next few days will be crucial to observe silver’s current movement, which is only a correction if the recent rebound is finalised. Technically, a clear fall below $23.8 could open space for new correction, while recovery of $24.3 will be a positive signal. Carlo Alberto De Casa is an external Market Analyst for Kinesis Money. He also writes as a technical analyst for the Italian newspaper La Stampa. Carlo Alberto provides regular commentary for UK outlets including the BBC, Telegraph, the Independent Bloomberg & Reuters. He is also a commentator for CNBC Italy. He worked for Bloomberg as their Equity Research Fundamental Analyst before joining brokerage ActivTrades in 2011 to specialize in currency markets and commodities. In 2014 he published a book on gold and the gold market, followed by a new updated edition in 2018. This report is not an offer of or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Any material provided does not have regard to the specific investment objective and financial situation of any person who may receive it. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.

Carlo Alberto De Casa
Carlo Alberto De Casa

29/10/2021

Gold & Silver Market Analysis for Wednesday 27th October

Kinesis Macroeconomic Analysis The EUR/USD currency pair has fallen below 1.16 for the first time in over a week, with the greenback recovering strength and the US 10 Year Treasury Yield steady above 1.60%. Anticipation for tomorrows’ European Central Bank meeting is growing, as investors continue the countdown for the Federal Open Market Committee meeting, scheduled for the 2nd-3rd November.  The majority of quarterly earnings reports released in the last few days have beaten the forecasts, adding fuel to the ‘risk-on’ scenario of the last few months. For the first time, Tesla surpassed both the $1,000 dollar per share mark and the threshold of $1 BN. Oil and energy commodities are still in the spotlight, as West Texas Intermediate (WTI) exceeded the region of $85 for the first time after the pandemic. This may have the effect of exacerbating investors’ fear about inflation. Kinesis Gold Price Analysis This week, the gold price is struggling to hold above $1,800 per ounce. The new trading session started by losing a few dollars, trading at around $1,790 while the bullion price per gram fluctuated between $57.5 and $57.8. Kinesis Exchange - Gold Price in ($/g) It seems that the recovery of the US Dollar, combined with a strong ‘risk-on’ sentiment in the financial markets, are not holding off further gold rallies. Right now, bullion volatility remains low, which is a positive signal. The current phase for gold appears as a consolidation after its recent recovery. From a technical point of view, only a clear surpass of the $1,820-1,830 threshold would open space for new rallies. In the weeks ahead, it seems unlikely that this will be the case as the ECB’s meeting is not forecasted to be a significant market mover for bullion. On the other hand, a dovish surprise from the Federal Reserve next week could significantly elevate the price. However, the bearish alternative could lead to the price finding its first support zone at the $1,770 mark. Buyers may be active again if the bullion price falls to $1,750. Kinesis Silver Price Analysis Yesterday, the silver price retraced, touching the psychological support of $24 before rebounding to $24.2. The technical picture remains positive as the current decline appears to be a temporary correction after a solid rebound. In fact, silver is still 6.5% above the price it was traded at just a month ago, and around 3 dollars more than the low reached a few weeks ago. This heavily 'risk-on’ scenario does not seem to be supportive in the short term. It is likely that recent highs above the region of $24.8 – $24.9 will flip this scenario on its head, opening space for new recoveries. Carlo Alberto De Casa is Market Analyst for Kinesis Money. He also writes as a technical analyst for the Italian newspaper La Stampa. Carlo Alberto provides regular commentary for UK outlets including the BBC, Telegraph, the Independent Bloomberg & Reuters. He is also a commentator for CNBC Italy. He worked for Bloomberg as their Equity Research Fundamental Analyst before joining brokerage ActivTrades in 2011 to specialize in currency markets and commodities. In 2014 he published a book on gold and the gold market, followed by a new updated edition in 2018. This report is not an offer of or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Any material provided does not have regard to the specific investment objective and financial situation of any person who may receive it. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.

Carlo Alberto De Casa
Carlo Alberto De Casa

27/10/2021

Gold & Silver Market Analysis for Monday 25th October

Macroeconomic Analysis At present, analysis of the financial markets shows that investors are in a ‘risk-on’ mode. Last week, the majority of reports detailing US quarterly earnings, presented figures that were higher than the forecasts, confirming a sweeping recovery for the country's economy.  This week, there will be plenty of notable happenings in the macroeconomic calendar. The European Central Bank (ECB) meeting to discuss monetary policy is scheduled for Thursday. Coinciding with this, the Bank of Canada and the Bank of Japan will also be in discussion this week, respectively. Major US companies will continue to release quarterly earnings, with the figures of Facebook, Apple, Amazon, Microsoft, Google to be revealed. Investors will certainly be focusing their attention on the forecast of the GDP growth in the third quarter of 2021, for the Eurozone and the US. Of course, data on inflation will also be noteworthy for investors.  On the Forex (foreign exchange) market, the Australian and New Zealand dollar remain strong, while the EUR/USD trading pair is being traded just above 1.165. After a recent recovery, the British pound could face renewed trouble if the UK government reinstates Covid restrictions - such as control around mass gatherings or the hospitality sector - as the number of cases continues to rise. A Positive Environment for Precious Metals Last week finished with gold and silver in a strong, bullish trend. Momentum remains positive for these precious metals, as investors are buying to diversify their portfolios. Despite the context of investors in “risk on” mode, there is still an element to investors buying precious metals as a safe-haven asset. So, why is this sudden inflow of precious metals happening? First of all, even if the Fed announce a first rate hike in 2022, interest rates will remain relatively low for a long time, therefore supporting the sector.  Gold and precious metals exist in a very specific niche of the commodities field, but they are still part of them. The major trend for the commodity sector as a whole is still strongly bullish, with some positive reflex on precious metals as well. In addition, the demand for gold and precious metals comes as investors seek a hedge against fluctuating market risk. At the same time, US stock indices indicate that there is still an appetite for risk since they are achieving new highs. With the Federal Reserve soon to announce the beginning of tapering - which already seems well-priced by the markets - the added legal jurisdiction facing Evergrande property tycoon, could have a further impact overall. In addition, the risk of inflation and stagflation has not disappeared just yet.  Gold is often viewed as a barrier against a prospective crisis on the Forex market, which in turn creates a loss of credibility for central banks. After years of hyper monetary expansive policies, this may generate new rallies on precious metals. Moreover, the slowing down of the dollar rally seen in the last two weeks was enough to trigger a rebound. On the other hand, silver is experiencing major physical demand, which is triggering a recovery for both these precious metals. In particular, silver has witnessed solidity in its demand and an expectation for its growth in the last couple of years. This is mostly due to the demand for photovoltaic technology and its use in electric cars component production. Gold Price Analysis The gold price remains in a positive mode. The price is now toying with the resistance placed at $1,800 and a clear surpass of these levels could trigger new rallies. With a potential target at $1,830, there is the later eventuality of $1,900 – 1,920 to consider. Gold price remains in a positive mode, trying to break up the 57.8-57.9 resistance zone ($/g) There will be a clear signal of weakness if prices fall below $1,770, with the trend set to change if prices can break down the support zone placed at $1,745 – 1,750. Analysing the price in dollars per gram, as we can see from the Kinesis Exchange chart, a clear surpass of $57.9 will open space for new recoveries. Silver Price Analysis The silver price is being traded in the region of $24.4 after having tested $24.8 - 24.9 on Friday. It seems that silver is consolidating after the recent rallies, as the price is still 5% higher than just a week prior, and far higher than the support zone of $24. This bullish mode will find further strength if prices break up the resistance placed at $24.9 - $25. Carlo Alberto De Casa is Market Analyst for Kinesis Money. He also writes as a technical analyst for the Italian newspaper La Stampa. Carlo Alberto provides regular commentary for UK outlets including the BBC, Telegraph, the Independent Bloomberg & Reuters. He is also a commentator for CNBC Italy. He worked for Bloomberg as their Equity Research Fundamental Analyst before joining brokerage ActivTrades in 2011 to specialize in currency markets and commodities. In 2014 he published a book on gold and the gold market, followed by a new updated edition in 2018. This report is not an offer of or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Any material provided does not have regard to the specific investment objective and financial situation of any person who may receive it. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.

Carlo Alberto De Casa
Carlo Alberto De Casa

25/10/2021

Gold & Silver Market Analysis for Friday 22nd October

Macroeconomic Analysis The appetite for risk in the financial market remains considerable. In the last few months, investors' ‘risk-on’ outlook continues after the recent announcement of US major companies’ earnings, which exceeded expectations. It was due to this announcement that the US stock market indices jumped to new highs, confirming the bullish trend. For the time being, it seems that investors are focusing on the possibility that the distribution and supply chain will suffer from the demand witnessed in the whole commodities sector – especially in the energy sector throughout the last few months. At the same time, stagflation risks seem to be ignored or scarcely considered by the markets. Stagflation is characterized by a high inflation rate, slowed economic growth and high unemployment. Despite this, there is still positive momentum in the markets for the moment.  In the next few days, central banks will be back in the spotlight, with the meeting of the European Central Bank (ECB) on Thursday, with the Federal Reserve expected to announce the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) two-day meeting on the 2nd-3rd of November. Bitcoin: A Small Break after the New Record On a separate note, Bitcoin’s new rally is no small feat. Yesterday, the leading cryptocurrency achieved an all-new historical high, with its price surpassing the former record of $65,000 reached in April 2021 and jumping up to $66,700. In the last few hours, it lost some ground, with a decline to $63,000, as investors took their gains - selling - after the impressive rally. The market cap of Bitcoin has now reached $1.180 million, while the capitalisation of the entire virtual currency sector is now close to $2.5 bn. Kinesis Money Gold Analysis The gold price has managed to jump again, above $1,790, as momentum continues to improve. Although bullion seems to be looking for a clear directionality, the main scenario remains supportive, with the price still floating in a lateral channel between $1,750 and 1,800 dollars per ounce. A clear break up of the resistance zone at $1,800 could open space for a quick recovery to $1,820-$1,830 where lies the highest level reached by bullion in the last four months. In case of a further breakup, the space for new rallies is relatively broad, as the first key resistance zone is positioned in the region of $1,900 – 1,920. Kinesis Money Silver Analysis Since mid-September, silver has topped gold's performance. This is clearly shown, simply by looking at the gold-silver ratio chart. Indeed, the number of ounces of silver required to buy the equivalent of gold has fallen from around 80 to 73. Silver Chart 4h from Kinesis Exchange ($/oz) - Momentum remains strongly positive for silver After a negative summer, the last few weeks have witnessed that the trend for silver has changed, as the grey metals achieved an increase of 7% in the last month. This was a clear surpass of the 2.5% increase experienced by gold. Analysing the short term scenario, the silver price has overtaken both the $23.7 and $24 mark, confirming the bullish trend. This will set the tone for elevating silver, in the next few weeks, up to $25 – 25.5. Carlo Alberto De Casa is Market Analyst for Kinesis Money. He also writes as a technical analyst for the Italian newspaper La Stampa. Carlo Alberto provides regular commentary for UK outlets including the BBC, Telegraph, the Independent Bloomberg & Reuters. He is also a commentator for CNBC Italy. He worked for Bloomberg as their Equity Research Fundamental Analyst before joining brokerage ActivTrades in 2011 to specialize in currency markets and commodities. In 2014 he published a book on gold and the gold market, followed by a new updated edition in 2018. This report is not an offer of or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Any material provided does not have regard to the specific investment objective and financial situation of any person who may receive it. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.

Carlo Alberto De Casa
Carlo Alberto De Casa

22/10/2021

Gold & Silver Market Analysis for Wednesday 20th October

Macroeconomic Analysis In the upcoming meeting, the financial markets are expecting the Federal Reserve to announce the beginning of tapering - the procedure of reducing liquidity in the system. This process is scheduled to last 6-8 months, ending in the middle of 2022. Swiftly following this, the Federal Reserve could raise interest rates for the first time after the pandemic. It seems that, for the next few months, the intention of monetary policy brought on by the Fed is relatively clear. In Europe, there is no precise timeline in place as yet, although tapering is expected to start much later. This can be attributed to the fact that both economic growth and inflation levels are lower than those recorded in the US, within the last few months. Despite this, it’s clear that a spike in the inflation rate could flip this scenario on its head. Hence, the report set to be published today concerning price growth in the Eurozone is being carefully monitored by both investors and traders. In August, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by 3.4%. Forecasts predict that this index will remain steady, with an additional 3.4% increase for September. Any reports above this level could place further pressure on the European Central Bank (ECB) to anticipate the next moves. On the other hand, if inflation figures are lower, markets may feel that there is no need for the ECB to act preemptively with hawkish monetary policies. Consequently, if markets expect the ECB to act later, this could result in the depreciation of Eurozone currency, while any hawkish news is expected to strengthen the Euro. In the end, this will, of course, reflect on the price ofo gold and silver, which often rises in conjunction with dovish monetary policies. Analysing the commodities markets, investors are also looking at Oil Inventories, which has been one of the main drivers for the growth in oil prices. The price of the barrel has climbed above $80 for both WTI and Brent - the two major benchmarks for oil. Kinesis Money Gold Analysis It is clear that investors are waiting for Eurozone CPI data. For now, it is possible to say that the scenario remains supportive, as buyers are strongly active each time that price falls to $1,760. Gold price ($/g) from Kinesis Exchange - The main trend remains supportive for bullion Yesterday, we saw another quick rally to $1,782, but the price did not manage to continue its rebound, correcting slightly in the final part of the day. Overall, bullion is being traded just a few dollars below, in a scenario that still appears supportive. Kinesis Money Silver Price Analysis Like gold, silver is offering positive signals to investors, as the price is holding above the crucial level of $23.5 with a spot price in the region of $23.8. Yesterday we saw a spike that would permit gold to jump above the 24 dollar mark. In the last few weeks, we have seen a proper inversion, as investors rediscovered the precious metal, which appeared “cheap” after the falls of August and September. From a technical point of view, the area $24.2 – $24.3 represents an important resistance, and a clear break up of these levels could open space for new recoveries to the peak of $24 reached in early September. The first support zone is positioned at $23.6, with a danger signal ringing if silver falls below $23.2. Carlo Alberto De Casa is Market Analyst for Kinesis Money. He also writes as a technical analyst for the Italian newspaper La Stampa. Carlo Alberto provides regular commentary for UK outlets including the BBC, Telegraph, the Independent Bloomberg & Reuters. He is also a commentator for CNBC Italy. He worked for Bloomberg as their Equity Research Fundamental Analyst before joining brokerage ActivTrades in 2011 to specialize in currency markets and commodities. In 2014 he published a book on gold and the gold market, followed by a new updated edition in 2018. This report is not an offer of or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Any material provided does not have regard to the specific investment objective and financial situation of any person who may receive it. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.

Carlo Alberto De Casa
Carlo Alberto De Casa

20/10/2021