Market Analysis

Keep up to date with the latest news in the global financial market, gold, silver and macroeconomic data analysis and information, prepared for Kinesis by leading precious metals market analysts. Your in-depth insight into the world of investing, trading and managing your gold and silver capital. Keep track of the current gold and silver price movements on the exchange, the short-term and long-term physical gold price predictions and most up-to-date price charts with explanation, updated every Monday, Wednesday and Friday. Save, trade and invest your gold and silver with Kinesis.

Gold & Silver Market Analysis for Friday 14th January

Kinesis Money Macroeconomic Analysis In the last few months, investors have been used to seeing inflation data surpassing expectations and forecasts. Yesterday, the opposite happened with the U.S. Producer Price Index for December posting a modest increase of +0.2% - well below the expected +0.4%. Notably, food and energy, two key sectors in the 2021 inflation rally, showed a decline from November. These figures could see some investors believe that inflation pressure is starting to ease. This scenario, in conjunction with a relatively dovish speech by Jerome Powell earlier this week, triggered a decline of the dollar. Indeed, the Dollar Index has fallen below 95 for the first time since mid-November. This has helped the precious metal sector with the gold price rebounding solidly, despite the 10 Year Treasury yields remaining well above the average of 2021 to about 1.70%-1.75%. Gold price 1h chart ($/g) from Kinesis Exchange Kinesis Money Gold Analysis Gold has started the new year showing significant resilience. The rebound seen in the last few days was certainly helped by the decline of the dollar, but we should consider that it happened while expectations for Fed rate hikes in 2022 jumped from 1 or 2 to 3 or 3.5. This all followed the December FOMC meeting and its hawkish meeting minutes, released earlier in January. Therefore, this positive movement should be considered significant. From a technical point of view, the main levels to follow remain unchanged. Bullion is still being traded at around $1,825, with the first resistance just a few dollars above, in the region of $1,830-$1,832. A clear climb above this level could encourage more investors to buy gold, opening space for an extended rally, with a potential target of $1,870 - a level last reached in November 2021. However, if gold doesn’t find the strength to break through $1,830, the price could continue its sideways dance between $1,800 and $1,830 seen in the last few days. Indeed, the first support zone is placed at $1,800 but this doesn’t seem in sight for now. Of course, macroeconomic indicators (particularly inflation and secondarily labour data) and Treasury yields, remain the main catalyst to follow to understand the next steps for gold. Looking at the price in dollars per gram, we can see that bullion is getting closer to $59 per gram. Kinesis Money Silver Analysis Silver seems to have forgotten – at least for the time being – the negative performance of 2021. Indeed, the precious metal is posting a gain of 4% from its price a week ago and is 8% above the level reached 30 days prior. The short-term momentum remains positive, with the spot price trying to break through the resistance zone at $23.30 to continue its recovery to the next key levels of $23.45 and $23.68-$23.70. A successful challenge of both these levels can be seen as a proper inversion (and no longer as a rebound) for the silver price. Find out more about what Kinesis has to offer Learn More Carlo Alberto De Casa is an external Market Analyst for Kinesis Money. He also writes as a technical analyst for the Italian newspaper La Stampa. Carlo Alberto provides regular commentary for UK outlets including the BBC, Telegraph, the Independent Bloomberg & Reuters. He is also a commentator for CNBC Italy. He worked for Bloomberg as their Equity Research Fundamental Analyst before joining brokerage ActivTrades in 2011 to specialize in currency markets and commodities. In 2014 he published a book on gold and the gold market, followed by a new updated edition in 2018. This report is not an offer of or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Any material provided does not have regard to the specific investment objective and financial situation of any person who may receive it. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.

Carlo Alberto De Casa
Carlo Alberto De Casa

14/01/2022

Gold & Silver Market Analysis for Wednesday 12th January

Kinesis Money Macroeconomic Analysis Yesterday, Jerome Powell appeared at the Senate for his re-nomination, as his second term mandate begins. In the hearing, he confirmed that the high rate of inflation was seen as a threat by the Federal Reserve, stating that the US central bank plans to raise interest rates this year in an attempt to run down its trillionaire balance sheet.  It seems that the markets were already well aware of the inflation risk, especially after the minutes from the FOMC meeting last December were released. Powell was calm while stating that the Federal Reserve is expecting month-over-month inflation to be moderate in the months ahead. That being said, the year-over-year inflation figures could be on the way to reaching a historical average in the second part of 2022, after the recent rally in which a three-decade-high was reached. After a series of hawkish interventions, yesterday's speech was, in fact, interpreted as slightly more on the dovish side. Although, the Fed remains on track for (at least) 3 rate hikes in 2022. The markets are currently pricing 3 rate increases with certainty, with the anticipation of an additional fourth hike (25 basis points) in December 2022.  Overall, the market reaction was positive, with stock indices closing the day positively and Europe opening in green this morning. However, the US dollar has slowed its upwards climb, while the 10-year treasuries yields remained above 1.70%. The focus is now moving to US inflation data (to be released at 14:30 CET), as a continuation of the price rally which could influence the Fed’s upcoming decisions. Kinesis Money Gold Analysis Following Jerome Powell’s intervention with the Senate, the gold price rebounded to reach a one-week-high. Despite the markets’ expectation that interest rates will rise significantly in the next few months, investors are showing a significant interest in gold. Bullion jumped to $1,820 and is now just a dozen dollars off the resistance level placed at $1,830-$1,832. A clear surpass of this threshold would open space for new recoveries, while a signal of weakness would be evident with a decline to $1,800.  Kinesis gold ($/g) chart - 1h - from Kinesis Exchange Today's main catalyst is likely to be the release of US inflation data. Any figures below expectations, could curb the dollar's rebound and help gold continue on its path to recovery. Kinesis Money Silver Analysis Today, silver is now consolidating the recovery it has undergone over the last few days. The price seems to be stabilising between $22 and $23, while the risk zones of $22 and $21.5 are well out of reach. A surpass of $23 would certainly be a positive signal for silver, while the price currently remains in its consolidation phase. Find out more about what Kinesis has to offer Learn More Carlo Alberto De Casa is an external Market Analyst for Kinesis Money. He also writes as a technical analyst for the Italian newspaper La Stampa. Carlo Alberto provides regular commentary for UK outlets including the BBC, Telegraph, the Independent Bloomberg & Reuters. He is also a commentator for CNBC Italy. He worked for Bloomberg as their Equity Research Fundamental Analyst before joining brokerage ActivTrades in 2011 to specialize in currency markets and commodities. In 2014 he published a book on gold and the gold market, followed by a new updated edition in 2018. This report is not an offer of or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Any material provided does not have regard to the specific investment objective and financial situation of any person who may receive it. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.

Carlo Alberto De Casa
Carlo Alberto De Casa

12/01/2022

Gold & Silver Market Analysis for Monday 10th January

Kinesis Money Macroeconomic Analysis Last Friday, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics released the nonfarm payroll data which, safe to say, missed analysts' expectations. Before the release, the forecasts anticipated an increase of around 400,000 new employees, while the official data certified a growth of only 199,000 job units. It should be noted that figures for the months of October and November last year were positively revised, with an additional +141,000 units. Furthermore, the unemployment rate declined to 3.9%, while average wages grew by 0.6% on a monthly basis. Could these figures change the upcoming decisions of the Fed? It’s unlikely, even if they have a wider impact overall. The minutes of the FOMC meeting held in December showed that bankers are focusing more on inflation rather than labour data. Within the meeting minutes, the word “inflation” was used a total of 75 times, in conjunction with a hawkish emphasis. Therefore, the expectations for at least 3 interest rate hikes in 2022 is reasonable, and further supported, by the rebound of the US Treasury yield seen in the last 10 days. In this week's economic calendar, the consumer price index will be revealed on Wednesday, closely followed by the producer price index. These two indicators will be strictly followed by both investors and the Federal Reserve. Kinesis Money Gold Analysis Last Friday, the gold price experienced a moderate rebound, after US labour data disappointed investors. On the Forex market, the greenback has lost ground, with the dollar index falling below 96 points. To put this in context, bullion jumped from $1,786 to $1,796, confirming an inverse correlation with the dollar. The rebound was curbed by the resistance zone placed at $1,800, meaning that bullion has started this week with a slight decline. Overall, the gold price shows little volatility at present, with only marginal movements (by a few dollars). Gold price ($/g) chart - 1h view - from Kinesis Exchange Even if the main focus for the Federal Reserve is on curbing the growth of prices, a weaker US labour market could reduce pressure on the central bank to instigate further hawkish decisions. From a technical point of view, a surpass of the $1,800 mark would denote strength for gold, even if a clear positive signal would only come about with a return of the price above the $1,830 resistance zone. Kinesis Money Silver Analysis The weakness of US nonfarm payroll data was a positive catalyst for silver, as well as for gold. The grey metal rebounded in the later trading hours of Friday last week from $22 to $22.4, before slowing down to $22.3 in today’s early trading. From a technical point of view, the rebound seen on Friday was encouraging, even if a confirmation signal is still needed. It is true that the medium-term trend remains weak, after the decline of the last few weeks. The next resistance zones are placed at $23 and $23.4; a surpass of these thresholds would open space for new recoveries. However, a new fall for silver below $22 would be considered a negative signal, with the next support zone target placed at $21.5. Find out more about what Kinesis has to offer Learn More Carlo Alberto De Casa is an external Market Analyst for Kinesis Money. He also writes as a technical analyst for the Italian newspaper La Stampa. Carlo Alberto provides regular commentary for UK outlets including the BBC, Telegraph, the Independent Bloomberg & Reuters. He is also a commentator for CNBC Italy. He worked for Bloomberg as their Equity Research Fundamental Analyst before joining brokerage ActivTrades in 2011 to specialize in currency markets and commodities. In 2014 he published a book on gold and the gold market, followed by a new updated edition in 2018. This report is not an offer of or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Any material provided does not have regard to the specific investment objective and financial situation of any person who may receive it. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.

Carlo Alberto De Casa
Carlo Alberto De Casa

10/01/2022

Gold & Silver Market Analysis for Friday 7th January

Kinesis Money Macroeconomic Analysis Today, the importance of central bank monetary policy and its domino effect on investment decisions is clear to see. Earlier this week, the Federal Reserve released the meeting minutes for the FOMC meeting held in December last year, giving further insight into upcoming policy decision-making.  It is already widely accepted that the US central bank no longer recognises inflation as “transitory”. Although, the meeting minutes showed a hawkish tone on their part, as policymakers could be preparing for an increase in rates sooner than expected. In fact, some officials expressed a preference for a quicker path towards rate hikes, in order to curb inflation and reduce the bank’s $8.8 trillion balance sheet. The minutes included some particularly hawkish comments: “Inflation readings remained high, and various indicators suggested that inflationary pressures had broadened in recent months”.  As mentioned, other comments also focused on the broadness of the Fed's current balance sheet. Some bankers noted that “the Federal Reserve's balance sheet was much larger, both in dollar terms and relative to nominal gross domestic product (GDP), than it was at the end of the third large-scale asset purchase program in late 2014”. The hawkish mode of the Fed had a number of effects on the financial market. The most remarkable was the increase in the US 10-years yields, which jumped above 1.70%, and the overall correction of stock markets. The technology sector was hit, as it generally is, paying fewer dividends. The US Dollar experienced a modest recovery, while gold and silver showed a moderate decline, as a consequence of the increase in bond yields. The next few trading sessions will give further insight into how the markets understand and respond to the FOMC meeting minutes. Another situation to consider is the one unfolding right now in Kazakhstan, which has resulted in dozens of victims. Due to the clashes over the last few days between protestors and the police, Russia has sent paratroopers to help the president regain control of the country.  Any escalation of the turmoil could increase the demand for gold as a safe-haven asset. Kinesis Money Gold Analysis Already, the bullion price has been hit by the hawkish tone of the FOMC minutes. The rally of the treasury yields generated a decline for gold, which lost the support zone of $1,800, hitting a low of $1,790.  Gold price ($/g) has fallen below $58 per gram - 1h chart from Kinesis Exchange From a technical point of view, the gold price has returned to the former lateral channel between $1,760 and $1,800, as investors await new catalysts. Any further hawkish indication from the Federal Reserve could trigger a negative impact on gold, while a slowdown of inflation growth (or any other suggestion of a push towards rate hikes) could be a positive market driver for gold.  Kinesis Money Silver Analysis During yesterday’s trading session, the rebound of bond yields generated a sell-off on silver, which lost 4%. The spot price of silver has now plummeted from $23 to $22.1, now approaching the support zone of $22.  The technical scenario for silver appears relatively fragile. A break-down of the support area of $22, will open space for a further decline to the next key level, placed at $21.5. This has been, importantly, the lowest level reached by silver in the last 18 months. Find out more about what Kinesis has to offer Learn More Carlo Alberto De Casa is an external Market Analyst for Kinesis Money. He also writes as a technical analyst for the Italian newspaper La Stampa. Carlo Alberto provides regular commentary for UK outlets including the BBC, Telegraph, the Independent Bloomberg & Reuters. He is also a commentator for CNBC Italy. He worked for Bloomberg as their Equity Research Fundamental Analyst before joining brokerage ActivTrades in 2011 to specialize in currency markets and commodities. In 2014 he published a book on gold and the gold market, followed by a new updated edition in 2018. This report is not an offer of or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Any material provided does not have regard to the specific investment objective and financial situation of any person who may receive it. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.

Carlo Alberto De Casa
Carlo Alberto De Casa

07/01/2022

Gold & Silver Market Analysis for Wednesday 5th January

Kinesis Money 2021 Summary and 2022 Outlook for the Year Ahead To summarise last year, there are some pivotal topics that should be mentioned. Among these, it is important to consider the continued bullish trend of stocks, with the S&P 500 up year over year (YoY) by 26.9%, and over 28% accounting for dividends. In addition to this, many commodities have achieved significant gains.   Another crucial topic to cover here is the monetary policy of central banks. In summer 2021, the Federal Reserve started preparing the markets for the impending tapering process, otherwise understood as the reduction of the liquidity in the system. This was later announced in November of last year. In December, the U.S. Central Bank increased the speed of the tapering process with the target of its completion by the end of March 2022 - instead of the original plan for June 2022. This year, the number of rate hikes is expected to increase from one to three. As a result of the tapering process, the greenback regained strength last year, with the US Dollar index recovering 96 points. Meanwhile, the EUR/USD trading pair fell to 1.13. The appreciation of the American currency, the “dominant dollar”, was also favoured by the unchanged dovish attitude of the European Central Bank. However, December was witness to the conflict between Miss Lagarde’s confirmation that inflation was expected to be transitory and Jerome Powell’s statement that US price growth was no longer a transitory situation. So, what should we expect for 2022? The few topics already mentioned are likely to remain central this year, and it seems they are strictly linked. Monetary policies could curb inflation, slowing down the rally of some industrial and agricultural commodities. On top of this, the US 10 years treasury yield notably finished 2021 in the region of 1.50%, before jumping to 1.65% in the first two trading sessions of 2022. The movement of the US 10 year bond yields is certainly an indicator of inflation expectations for the next few years, and should be closely monitored. Commodities in 2021 As mentioned, 2021 was the year of the commodity sector, especially the energy sector. Both WTI (West Texas Intermediate, the benchmark of US oil) and North European Brent rose by more than 50%. In addition, natural gas achieved a similar performance, despite experiencing greater volatility. During late summer, the price was up 120% YTD, before slowing down in the final quarter of the year. Another extraordinary performance was achieved by coffee, which jumped by 76%. Among agricultural commodities, cotton rose by 44% and wheat by around 22%. Furthermore, the performance of industrial metals was positive, with copper up by 23%, nickel by 26% and zinc by 30%. Even better than this was steel, which jumped by 40%. All this, of course, exacerbated the effects of inflation, generating various problems in the supply chain. The scenario, as it will be pointed out, has been different for precious metals. Precious Metals in 2021 In 2021, precious metals were one of the few raw materials down last year. Gold posted a loss of almost 4%, while silver declined by 11%. Palladium, despite the massive gains seen during previous years, lost around 20% last year. It should be pointed out that the negative performance of gold must be contextualised within the main macroeconomic scenario. Many investors still preferred betting on stocks, in an attempt to achieve quick gains. In 2021 we saw a hawkish Federal Reserve, with a growing number of rate hikes expected for 2022 - a factor that could implicitly make holding gold more expensive. Unlike in 2013, when the announcement of tapering generated a “taper tantrum”, the reaction of gold twas composed in 2021 with a drop of only a few percentage points, confirming the resilience of bullion to various market scenarios. Gold chart from Kinesis Exchange - $/g - 1h timeframe Kinesis Money Gold Analysis In 2021, the gold price started with a decline from $1,830 to $1,800, after the recovery of US bond yields. Within the support zone of $1,800, we have seen buyers being very active, and the price now recovering to $1,815. From a technical point of view, a new positive signal would be highlighted with the surpassing of $1,830. However, a decline below $1,800 could bring the gold price back into the lateral channel of $1,760 and $1,800. Analysing the price in dollars per gram, bullion remains traded above $58. Find out more about what Kinesis has to offer Learn More Carlo Alberto De Casa is an external Market Analyst for Kinesis Money. He also writes as a technical analyst for the Italian newspaper La Stampa. Carlo Alberto provides regular commentary for UK outlets including the BBC, Telegraph, the Independent Bloomberg & Reuters. He is also a commentator for CNBC Italy. He worked for Bloomberg as their Equity Research Fundamental Analyst before joining brokerage ActivTrades in 2011 to specialize in currency markets and commodities. In 2014 he published a book on gold and the gold market, followed by a new updated edition in 2018. This report is not an offer of or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Any material provided does not have regard to the specific investment objective and financial situation of any person who may receive it. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.

Carlo Alberto De Casa
Carlo Alberto De Casa

05/01/2022

Gold & Silver Market Analysis for Monday 20th December

Kinesis Money Macroeconomic Analysis The week has started with the Futures index in dark red. Investors are worried about the possibility of further lockdowns, as multiple Covid variants continue to spread, globally. Notably, the Central Bank of China has cut prime loan rates, confirming investors' fears about an anaemic recovery.  In the US, the legislative crisis within the Democratic party is slowing down the process of budget approval. Indeed, Senator Joe Manchin declared that he will not be voting in favour of Biden’s spending bill. This has halted Biden’s $2 trillion tax-and-spending package. This is a very different scenario from last week, especially when we compare it to the meetings held by the Federal Reserve and the Bank of England, respectively. Indeed, the FOMC meeting (on the 14th-15th December) was one of the most hawkish seen over the last few years, which set in motion an acceleration to the pace of tapering. In Europe, the Bank of England hiked the interest rate for the first time after the pandemic in order to curb the effects of inflation. On the other hand, the Bank of Japan announced that it is planning to start reducing bond purchases in Q1 (of 2022) with increased pressure on prices.  Not accounting for the Eurozone - where, according to Lagarde of the European Central Bank, inflation remains “transitory” - many central banks are preoccupied with rising prices and inflationary risks. It is likely that these drivers have already been priced into the current market scenario. In the case of accelerated inflation, it is likely that gold will play a key role in the lead up to, and during, the year 2022. The World Gold Council recently reminded investors that sustained inflation could boost institutional demand for bullion, as a hedge against inflation, or alternatively, market risks. Kinesis Money Gold Analysis Despite the Federal Reserve doubling the tapering from $15bn per month to $30bn, the gold price recovered from $1,760 to $1,814.  Gold ($/g) Chart - 1h - from Kinesis Exchange The rebound lost strength in the last few hours of Friday’s trading session. During this time, gold pulled back to its former resistance zone, resting at the support zone of $1,800 per ounce.  This morning, while we are seeing growing volatility for the stock market index, and oil, gold remains stable, dancing around the $1,800 area. From a technical point of view, gold has regained momentum, although the challenge between bulls and bears has not yet found a clear directionality. A confirmation above the $1,800 mark would reinforce the bullish impulse, opening space for new rallies at $1,830. A new test in the region of $1,870-1,880 now seems less likely, considering the strength of the greenback.  Kinesis Money Silver Analysis The silver price started the new week in a fractional decline, trading above $22. The rebound last seen on Thursday has lost momentum, and the next few weeks could be crucial for silver, which underperformed gold in 2021. From a technical point of view, $21.5 remains a key support zone. There will be a proper inversion only with a return of the price above the $23 mark. Find out more about what Kinesis has to offer Learn More Carlo Alberto De Casa is an external Market Analyst for Kinesis Money. He also writes as a technical analyst for the Italian newspaper La Stampa. Carlo Alberto provides regular commentary for UK outlets including the BBC, Telegraph, the Independent Bloomberg & Reuters. He is also a commentator for CNBC Italy. He worked for Bloomberg as their Equity Research Fundamental Analyst before joining brokerage ActivTrades in 2011 to specialize in currency markets and commodities. In 2014 he published a book on gold and the gold market, followed by a new updated edition in 2018. This report is not an offer of or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Any material provided does not have regard to the specific investment objective and financial situation of any person who may receive it. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.

Carlo Alberto De Casa
Carlo Alberto De Casa

20/12/2021