Market Analysis

Keep up to date with the latest news in the global financial market, gold, silver and macroeconomic data analysis and information, prepared for Kinesis by leading precious metals market analysts. Your in-depth insight into the world of investing, trading and managing your gold and silver capital. Keep track of the current gold and silver price movements on the exchange, the short-term and long-term physical gold price predictions and most up-to-date price charts with explanation, updated every Monday, Wednesday and Friday. Save, trade and invest your gold and silver with Kinesis.

Gold & Silver Market Analysis for Monday 15th November

Kinesis Money Macroeconomic Analysis After an intense macroeconomic agenda over the past few weeks, the week ahead is expected to be slightly quieter, despite the initial release of jobless claim requests. There is a good chance that there will be a consolidation of recent movements, while any indications of price growth will continue to be strictly followed by the investors. Indeed, stock trading has slowed down in the last few sessions - albeit moderately - after US prices rose by 6% last month, in line with inflation. This generated a jump in US treasuries, with the 10-year Treasury yield rising to 1.55%. On the Forex market, the greenback achieved further gains, climbing above 95, as the EUR/USD pair is still being traded below 1.15. Kinesis Money Gold Analysis Gold and silver are showing fractional losses in today’s early trading session. However, the last two weeks have clearly offered a very positive signal for the precious metal sector. Therefore, today’s minor correction could still be seen as consolidation, as some investors cash in on their profit after the recent gains. Kinesis Gold Chart - ($/g) - from Kinesis Exchange Moreover, some technical indicators, such as the RSI (relative strength index), were in a clear overbought situation and a tiny correction could help the bulls to recover strength. Of course, analysis of this retracement as modest is required to confirm this theory. Analysing the scenario for bullion showed its clear surpass of the first resistance level placed at $1,800 before it jumped above $1,830 to then accelerate up to $1,865. It remains that the medium-term scenario is supportive of gold. This is displayed by the first barrier placed at $1,850 and the second support placed at $1,830-1,834 - the former top for bullion. On the other hand, a new break-up of $1,867 - $1,870 could open space for gold to reach $1,900 and eventually, $1,920 - the former record of 2011, which was surpassed in the summer of 2020. Kinesis Money Silver Analysis The silver rally continued on Friday, as the price rebounded to $25.4. In the month of October, silver rallied from a low of $21.2 to $25.4, strongly outperforming gold. This week saw silver start in red, with bullion being traded just above $25. Technically, there is a strong support zone at $24.9, and a decline below this threshold can be considered as a negative signal for silver. Bulls will recover strength if the price can surpass $25.4, with space here for more recoveries and a target in the region of $25.8 – 26. Similar to gold, the modest decline seen in the early trading session today seems to be a retracement and not yet a proper inversion. Find out more about what Kinesis has to offer Learn More Carlo Alberto De Casa is an external Market Analyst for Kinesis Money. He also writes as a technical analyst for the Italian newspaper La Stampa. Carlo Alberto provides regular commentary for UK outlets including the BBC, Telegraph, the Independent Bloomberg & Reuters. He is also a commentator for CNBC Italy. He worked for Bloomberg as their Equity Research Fundamental Analyst before joining brokerage ActivTrades in 2011 to specialize in currency markets and commodities. In 2014 he published a book on gold and the gold market, followed by a new updated edition in 2018. This report is not an offer of or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Any material provided does not have regard to the specific investment objective and financial situation of any person who may receive it. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.

Carlo Alberto De Casa
Carlo Alberto De Casa

15/11/2021

Gold & Silver Market Analysis for Friday 12th November

Kinesis Money Macroeconomic Analysis The common trend often sees the price of gold negatively correlated with the price of the US Dollar. Although, the charts produced recently have shown a different story, as significant gains were posted for both gold and the US Dollar.  In particular, bullion jumped to a new 5-month-high, while the Dollar index - measuring the strength of the greenback against other currencies - surpassed the level of 95, for the first time since mid-July. Moreover, the EUR/USD currency pair, which is by far the main component of the dollar index, declined below 1.15. What is the reason behind these happenings in the financial markets? The announcement about tapering has not lessened investors' appetite for gold. However, the US inflation rate, which just surged to a new 30-year-high, was a major market driver - effectively scaring the financial markets.  This data could force the Federal Reserve to increase rates sooner than expected. In theory, this should be positive for the greenback, but only so long as inflation is kept fully under control. If those watching the financial markets notice that the Fed is forced to act, just to “run behind” inflation, the outcome will be very different. Namely, they could lose trust in the dollar. Looking at the scenario for gold, the picture appears more complicated, but in some ways similar to that of the dollar. It is true that moderate inflation could be negative for gold, as it often entails higher rates and an increase in the implicit cost of holding gold. On the other hand, uncontrolled or partially controlled growth of prices could be detrimental to the economic system, which for gold, could make it even more crucial for investors’ portfolios. Kinesis Money Gold Analysis The chart here, indeed, speaks for itself. The momentum on gold has improved, with a surpass of the resistance zones placed at $1,800 and $1,830, opening spaces for new rallies. Still, gold is gaining momentum.  Kinesis Gold Chart - ($/g) - from Kinesis Exchange Both the short and medium-term trends remain positive, with potential targets for gold placed at $1,900 and $1,920. So far today, early trading has seen the price consolidate laterally. Analysing the future expiry of December 21, the first support zone at $1,856, would likely be followed by another support zone of $1,845. A surpass of the recent peak of $1,865 would be a call for new rebounds. Kinesis Money Silver Analysis In conjunction with the gold rally over the last few days, the silver price has broken up the resistance placed at $24.9, returning above the key threshold of $25. In addition, momentum is also positive for silver, which started trading today by slightly outperforming gold. Indeed, silver is being traded close to its recent top of $23.35 and could be ready for new hikes. Find out more about what Kinesis has to offer Buy Gold & Silver Carlo Alberto De Casa is an external Market Analyst for Kinesis Money. He also writes as a technical analyst for the Italian newspaper La Stampa. Carlo Alberto provides regular commentary for UK outlets including the BBC, Telegraph, the Independent Bloomberg & Reuters. He is also a commentator for CNBC Italy. He worked for Bloomberg as their Equity Research Fundamental Analyst before joining brokerage ActivTrades in 2011 to specialize in currency markets and commodities. In 2014 he published a book on gold and the gold market, followed by a new updated edition in 2018. This report is not an offer of or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Any material provided does not have regard to the specific investment objective and financial situation of any person who may receive it. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.

Carlo Alberto De Casa
Carlo Alberto De Casa

12/11/2021

Gold & Silver Market Analysis for Wednesday 10th November

Kinesis Macroeconomic Analysis In the last few days, bullish pressure on stock indices has slowed down, as the financial markets consolidate after the acceleration seen in the first week of November. The overall tone remains positive, with the long-term bullish trend on stocks, still intact. Investors are looking for new drivers before changing their exposure to the markets and, overall, the volatility appeared relatively moderate. In today’s early trading indices, Futures contracts are being traded in the fractional red zone, while the 10 year Treasury Note yield is showing no sign of a rebound, remaining below 1.50%. The Forex market has seen some big movements of late, where the EUR/USD trading pair is now being traded just below 1.16, with the greenback recovering 0.10-0.20%. This week, one of the few commodities showing directional movements, in fact, was gold. The yellow metal surpassed Friday’s resistance zone placed at $1,800, before continuing its rally yesterday, getting close to a new 5-month high. The small rebound of the U.S. dollar seen this morning has temporarily curbed the gold rally, even if bullion still remains solid. Kinesis Money Gold Analysis Even though the tapering has been announced, and is close to its beginning, there is a certain level of clarity that the Federal Reserve will be very cautious before raising rates. Moreover, the same approach - if not more dovish - will likely be adopted by the European Central Bank and the large majority of monetary institutions. The only exception to this rule will appear with the central banks of emerging market economies (EMEs), since they are not likely - nor willing - to accept higher inflation rates. Therefore it is likely that their preference for adopting hawkish monetary policies will occur sooner.  4h chart on gold - ($/g) - Kinesis Exchange On a broader scale, this represents a minority, while the main scenario will remain extremely dovish with real interest rates still negative, considering the growth in inflation. Therefore, investors' interest in gold remains strong, leading to the bullion price reaching its highest levels seen since June. Gold surpassed the key resistance zone placed at $1,830 and rallied up to $1,835. The small decline shown this morning should not worry many investors, since the technical picture has strongly improved in the last few trading sessions. A weekly closure above $1,830 would represent another strong positive signal. In fact, the closest resistance - placed at $1,850 - does not seem strong enough to interrupt gold’s recovery. In this hypothetical scenario, there could be a strong chance of seeing gold test the psychological threshold of $1,900. Further on this, there is potential for the reintroduction of the former all-time-high at $1,922, which gold reached in 2011 and only surpassed again in the summer of 2020. Kinesis Money Silver Analysis The silver price remains to be traded above $24, with a slightly more underwhelming picture than gold. Silver experienced a particularly sharp decline from $24.5 to $24.2, which has been partially absorbed by the markets - in just the last few hours.  In this scenario, the ratio between gold and silver jumped from 74.7 to 75.3, before slowing down this morning to 75, as silver was recovering. From a technical point of view, silver will offer a positive signal once it surpasses $24.5, with more space for new rallies if the price jumps above the former top of $24.9 – 25. Buy Precious Metals with Kinesis Money Buy Gold and Silver Carlo Alberto De Casa is an external Market Analyst for Kinesis Money. He also writes as a technical analyst for the Italian newspaper La Stampa. Carlo Alberto provides regular commentary for UK outlets including the BBC, Telegraph, the Independent Bloomberg & Reuters. He is also a commentator for CNBC Italy. He worked for Bloomberg as their Equity Research Fundamental Analyst before joining brokerage ActivTrades in 2011 to specialize in currency markets and commodities. In 2014 he published a book on gold and the gold market, followed by a new updated edition in 2018. This report is not an offer of or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Any material provided does not have regard to the specific investment objective and financial situation of any person who may receive it. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.

Carlo Alberto De Casa
Carlo Alberto De Casa

10/11/2021

Gold & Silver Market Analysis for Monday 8th November

Kinesis Money Macroeconomic Analysis Today, the financial markets are clearly in a “risk-on” setting. In support of this outlook, last week saw the US stock market indices achieve a new all-time high, after the nonfarm payrolls beat expectations. This did well to solidify progress made towards economic recovery in the US.   Investors seem to have appreciated the dovish stance taken by the central banks of late. With the tapering process being largely expected, and now fully instigated, by the Federal Reserve, the proceeding response from the financial markets has been moderate. Furthermore, the Fed made some particularly dovish comments about interest rates, with movement set to remain close to zero until the end of 2022.  As for the Bank of England, they recently confirmed the base interest rate at a historical low of 0.10%. In this scenario, the prospect for gold and silver is positive, paving the way for an outlook that features significant gains for the precious metals. In other words, not only has a new “taper tantrum” - like the one in 2013 - been avoided, but gold and silver have actually rebounded. On the other hand, the 10 Year Treasury yield has fallen below a return of 1.50% while stocks remain in the green zone. Kinesis Money Gold Analysis The gold chart speaks for itself. Bullion has regained its momentum, achieving its best week in over two months and closing Friday’s trading session above $1,815. All this happened, notably, just after the Federal Reserve announced a new tapering. Gold chart - ($/g) - from Kinesis Exchange From a technical point of view, the scenario has improved. Even if buyers have not yet been able to push the price above the key $1,830 resistance zone, the gold price has already surpassed $1,813 - the high reached on the 22nd of October. It jumped up to $1,819, as investors were willing to further increase their exposure to the precious metal. Now, bullion is close to the key resistance zone of $1,830 per ounce (or $58.8-59 per gram), which has already stopped gold rebounding three times in the last few months. Hence, a surpass of this threshold would open further space for new recoveries. As observed in the chart - representing the gold price in dollars per gram - if bullion can surpass the obstacle represented by the resistance zone of $59 per gram, further recoveries can be expected. Kinesis Money Silver Analysis Silver has started the new week in a relatively steady position. Remember, it finished last week by jumping to $24.25, with the weekly performance up by 1.7%. This performance did little to shine a light on the future outlook for silver. Last Wednesday, the low silver reached at $23.05 has since recovered by almost 5%. However, the recent high of $24.9 still remains to be the first main target for silver, while it finds an intermediate resistance zone at $23.67. If the price can exceed these levels, there could be space for new rallies.  Carlo Alberto De Casa is an external Market Analyst for Kinesis Money. He also writes as a technical analyst for the Italian newspaper La Stampa. Carlo Alberto provides regular commentary for UK outlets including the BBC, Telegraph, the Independent Bloomberg & Reuters. He is also a commentator for CNBC Italy. He worked for Bloomberg as their Equity Research Fundamental Analyst before joining brokerage ActivTrades in 2011 to specialize in currency markets and commodities. In 2014 he published a book on gold and the gold market, followed by a new updated edition in 2018. This report is not an offer of or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Any material provided does not have regard to the specific investment objective and financial situation of any person who may receive it. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.

Carlo Alberto De Casa
Carlo Alberto De Casa

08/11/2021

Gold & Silver Market Analysis for Friday 5th November

Tapering Means Tapering - or a "Taper Tantrum" The reaction seen in the financial market in response to tapering could have been drastically different. Although, investors were not surprised this time around, and have been heavily preparing for the beginning of the process that will reduce liquidity in the system. The Federal Reserve was conscious of risking another “taper tantrum”, similar to the one witnessed in 2013 where the panicked reaction from the financial markets occurred after a tapering announcement. The Fed, therefore, proceeded with extreme caution before revealing the upcoming tapering.  Some members of the board stated this intention in July 2021, before Jerome Powell explained further in the Jackson Hole Symposium (a meeting focusing on important economic issues facing world economies) in late August.  Before all this became the reality, public anticipation was left to build over the course of three months.  As was forecasted in the previous analysis, the market reaction has been extremely moderate. The EUR/USD trading pair showed a level of volatility that currently rests above the average, with some gains for the greenback that are contained in the region of 0.5%. Gold, on the other hand, registered a fractional loss. Yesterday, the Bank of England was contrastingly more dovish than expected. The last analysis forecasted a 6-3 vote in favour of keeping rates unchanged, while other analysts were predicting an interest rate hike. The eventual outcome of the BoE vote was a 7-2 vote split, confirming that members on Old Lady of Threadneedle Street are still cautious when manipulating interest rates. It is worth mentioning that the market reaction was significant, as gold recovered the loss seen the day before, returning close to $1,800. Silver bounced back to $23.8, which indicates that the markets seem to have digested the fact of tapering so far. Later today, this busy week will close with US labour data and a particular focus on the NFP (non-farm payrolls). Kinesis Money Gold Analysis The bullion price has shown some interesting signals of consolidation this week. Unlike in 2013, the post-announcement phase after the beginning of tapering saw bullion remain relatively steady, with a modest decline. Gold chart from Kinesis Exchange - 4h chart - ($/g) On the other hand, some dovish words from the BoE and Fed were enough to trigger a rebound. Gold remained above the key resistance of $1,750, attempting a rebound to $1,800, with the technical picture appearing relatively solid. Kinesis Money Silver Analysis Once again, silver was able to surprise the markets, rebounding to $23.8 with the technical picture appearing fragile.  A new recovery above $24 would represent a positive signal for silver, with the trend slightly unclear after the recent rebound was stopped by the key resistance zone of $24.9. As mentioned in our previous analyses, the outlook for silver remains solid. It is true that the supply is growing, but at the same time, the demand coming from photovoltaic technology and electric cars is strong. Most likely, this demand will continue to rise in the next few years. Carlo Alberto De Casa is an external Market Analyst for Kinesis Money. He also writes as a technical analyst for the Italian newspaper La Stampa. Carlo Alberto provides regular commentary for UK outlets including the BBC, Telegraph, the Independent Bloomberg & Reuters. He is also a commentator for CNBC Italy. He worked for Bloomberg as their Equity Research Fundamental Analyst before joining brokerage ActivTrades in 2011 to specialize in currency markets and commodities. In 2014 he published a book on gold and the gold market, followed by a new updated edition in 2018. This report is not an offer of or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Any material provided does not have regard to the specific investment objective and financial situation of any person who may receive it. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.

Carlo Alberto De Casa
Carlo Alberto De Casa

05/11/2021

Gold & Silver Market Analysis for Wednesday 3rd November

Waiting for tapering - Are the markets ready to survive without the Federal Reserve?  In 2013, when the Fed announced the tapering, the so-called “Taper Tantrum” was witnessed. The financial markets panicked - a response that was mostly tied to bonds and gold. This evening, there's a very high chance that the Federal Reserve will announce the beginning of a new tapering. However, the possibility that the financial markets will react as they did in 2013 is small. In fact, the US Central Bank virtually “prepared” the financial markets for the process of reducing liquidity, in order to mitigate the potentially adverse effects of tapering. In late July of 2021, members of the Federal Reserve were already starting to signal that they intended to reduce bond purchases before the end of the year. Despite this, the decline of stock investment was modest, while Treasury yields remained relatively low, in the 1.50% area. In a few words, it seems that in 2021 – unlike 2013 - the financial markets are prepared in advance of tapering. Therefore, the market reaction after the official announcement for the beginning of the process should be mitigated. This is not to say that there will not be a reaction, but that the markets have already priced the tapering. On the other hand, any alteration in the timimg and pace of the tapering could generate significant movements. In this scenario, the EUR/USD trading pair has fallen below 1.16, while gold is being traded a few dollars below the $1,800 threshold. The oil price remains steady in the region of $83 per barrel. Natural gas is still close to reaching its recent peak, with the futures contract being traded in the region of $5.50. Kinesis Money Gold Analysis Investors are watching on and traders want to know more about the upcoming decisions of the Federal Open Market Committee, before increasing their gold exposure. Because of this, the price is languishing in the $1,780-1,790 area, struggling to find a clear directionality. Gold Price Chart 4h - from Kinesis Exchange - ($/g) Considering the bigger picture, it’s easy to see that gold is still inserted in the lateral trading range seen over the past few weeks. Only a fall below $1,750 would show a new bearish impulse, while a surpass of $1,800, could open space for new recoveries to the next resistance placed at $1,820-1,830. As aforementioned, the chances of another “taper tantrum” for gold appears to have reduced. In 2013, gold lost around 28% of its value. Thus far, bullion posted a loss of around 6% which was largely mitigated. This was particularly felt by investors outside the US due to the recovery of the greenback on the forex market. The year 2021 is thus on track for a better outcome than 2013. Kinesis Money Silver Analysis Silver has lost momentum as it continues with its recent bearish impulse, after a couple of weeks experiencing a significant rebound. Both the spot and future price declined to $23.5, breaking down the $23.7 support zone and thus confirming its deteriorating picture - technically and graphically. Still, silver is being traded around 10% above the recent low of $21.2, but at the same time, it has lost around 5% since its October peak of $24.9. Carlo Alberto De Casa is an external Market Analyst for Kinesis Money. He also writes as a technical analyst for the Italian newspaper La Stampa. Carlo Alberto provides regular commentary for UK outlets including the BBC, Telegraph, the Independent Bloomberg & Reuters. He is also a commentator for CNBC Italy. He worked for Bloomberg as their Equity Research Fundamental Analyst before joining brokerage ActivTrades in 2011 to specialize in currency markets and commodities. In 2014 he published a book on gold and the gold market, followed by a new updated edition in 2018. This report is not an offer of or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Any material provided does not have regard to the specific investment objective and financial situation of any person who may receive it. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.

Carlo Alberto De Casa
Carlo Alberto De Casa

03/11/2021