Gold Price News: Gold Hits Another High

Gold surged to another all-time high on Friday, topping $2509/oz in intraday trade and bringing a weekly gain to over 3%. The yellow metal has once again proven resilient to renewed firming in US rates markets and opens the week having already reached a new high of $2515/oz.

The latter half of last week saw expectations of a September Fed rate cut pared from an even chance of a 0.25% or 0.5% cut to just a 25% probability of a 0.5% reduction. This was seemingly prompted by better-than-expected US July US Retail Sales on 15 July. However, the follow through to the long end of the yield curve was limited, with 10-year US Treasury yields down marginally on the week.  Looking to the end of the year, futures are still pricing in a total of 3-4 quarter-point cuts in total and an average of 7 quarter-point cuts by June next year, according to CME FedWatch.

The most recent CFTC Commitments of Traders (CoT) report published late on Friday indicates that speculators increased net long gold futures positions over the previous week and are now close to the 41-month high recorded on 26 July. Conversely, physical gold ETFs/ETCs show some net outflow late last week, possibly a sign of profit-taking. Monday sees Fed Board Member Waller (voter, dove) speak, followed by Fed Board Member Waller (voter, centrist) and Atlanta Fed President Bostic (voter, hawk) on Tuesday.

Gold’s new all-time high on Friday meant that descending oblique minor resistance at $2465/oz, major horizontal resistance at $2468/oz and oblique ascending resistance at $2505/oz were all broken on Friday’s close. These levels now present as support and while RSI appears somewhat elevated (at 65), MACD is supportive.

To the upside, the completion of the 26 June, 17 July, and 25 July symmetrical triangle suggest an initial upside target of $2543/oz.