Gold & Silver Market Analysis for Friday 17th of September

Kinesis Money Macroeconomic Analysis The gold price is typically hedging down whenever the US Dollar is strengthening. Similarly, if the greenback is weakening, there are good chances of seeing bullion rebounding. Long story short: gold has an inverse relationship with the U.S. Dollar. It is not always the case, but from a statistical perspective, gold and dollar are, more often than not, inversely related. Because bullion is priced in the US Dollar, whenever American currency is getting stronger, gold generally starts appearing less convenient for buyers from outside the United States. This is exactly what we have seen yesterday, with the Dollar Index jumping to a 3-week-high, while gold lost $40, more than 2% of its overall value, while silver declined sharply, surpassing 5%. The fall in other currencies (as in the Euro or the British pound examples) was slightly lower, as it was mitigated by the exchange rate. The reason behind the dollar appreciation can be found in the U.S. labour data. Indeed, the U.S. government announced the continuing jobless claims down to 2.67 million (from 2.85 million). On top of this, the Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index has risen to 30.7 points, strongly above analysts’ forecast of 18.8. This data is adding pressure on the Federal Reserve, meeting on the 21-22 September to decide next steps of monetary policies. Higher chances of a sooner-than-expected tapering are of course a supportive market driver for the USD. Kinesis Money Gold Analysis Bullion has lost the support zone of $1,790, falling down to $1,750 in a couple of hours. This decline worsened both the technical and graphical pictures, as investors are concerned about the upcoming tapering.  Gold price in $/gram - 4h chart from Kinesis Money Exchange Despite this, Friday started in green, with an interesting rebound to $1,765, confirming that the price has found a new support zone at $1,750. In case of further declines, the next support zone is placed at $1,727 – 1,730.  The bottom reached in August at $1,676 is still $90 below the current prices. Kinesis Money Silver Analysis The silver decline was even sharper than the gold decline, confirming the weakness observed over the past two months. The precious metal’s price lost over 5% in yesterday’s trading session, falling below $23.  After a low in the region of $22.6, silver is now trying to recover to $23. Despite this modest rebound, the majority of technical indicators are still showing some fragility. Despite that, in the medium – long term fundamental basis appears much more solid, both from industry and jewellery. Carlo Alberto De Casa is Market Analyst for Kinesis Money. He also writes as a technical analyst for the Italian newspaper La Stampa. Carlo Alberto provides regular commentary for UK outlets including the BBC, Telegraph, the Independent Bloomberg & Reuters. He is also a commentator for CNBC Italy. He worked for Bloomberg as their Equity Research Fundamental Analyst before joining brokerage ActivTrades in 2011 to specialize in currency markets and commodities. In 2014 he published a book on gold and the gold market, followed by a new updated edition in 2018. This report is not an offer of or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Any material provided does not have regard to the specific investment objective and financial situation of any person who may receive it. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.

Carlo Alberto De Casa
Carlo Alberto De Casa

17/09/2021

Gold & Silver Market Analysis for Wednesday 15th of September

Kinesis Money - Macroeconomic Analysis The U.S. inflation data missed the expectations. Indeed, the core Consumer Price increased by merely 0.1% over the past month, while forecasts were prognosticating a more significant rise of +0.3%. It is clear that these last figures are reducing the pressure on the Federal Reserve for hastened tapering (the process for the reducing liquidity). The Federal Reserve’s Open Market Committee will meet on September 21-22. However, the chances for the announcement of the beginning of the process during this month's meeting decreased significantly. Most investors are now expecting the tapering to be announced during the following summit, at the beginning of November. In other words, the Federal Reserve is expected to be more cautious in scaling back pandemic-era bond purchases, in order to continuously sustain the recovery of the economy. What are the consequences of this on the financial markets? Overall, we have seen a modest impact on the stocks, even if growing chances of the Fed postponing the tapering are a supportive market driver. On the other hand, this is a bearish element for the U.S. Dollar. A sure winner is definitely gold. Indeed a low-interest rate scenario decreases the real cost of holding bullion. Kinesis Money - Gold Analysis U.S. inflation data below expectations has been supportive news for gold. Bullion recovered the $1,800 mark, remaining in the lateral trading range between $1,790 and $1,820.  Gold price in $/gram from Kinesis Exchange. In the current scenario, it is difficult finding a clear trend. Indeed, investors are waiting for more clarity from the Fed in regard to the expected tapering. This probably won't be clarified until September's meeting, increasing the chances of keeping bond purchases in the current limbo, awaiting a clearer directionality. A new fall below $1,785-1,790 could be seen as the weakness signal, while a clear surpass of $1,820 could open space for new recoveries. Kinesis Money - Silver Analysis Silver has shown some volatility in the last 48h, with two quick declines to $23.4 and $23.5. The scenario remains weak, but there is good news. Both times, when silver declined, buyers were really active, helping the price to rebound quickly. They are seeing dips as a buying opportunity. Even if there is not yet any clear bullish trend on silver, the bearish pressure seems to be losing strength. A clear surpass of the resistance zone placed at $24 and $24,3 would represent a positive signal for silver. Carlo Alberto De Casa is Market Analyst for Kinesis Money. He also writes as a technical analyst for the Italian newspaper La Stampa. Carlo Alberto provides regular commentary for UK outlets including the BBC, Telegraph, the Independent Bloomberg & Reuters. He is also a commentator for CNBC Italy. He worked for Bloomberg as their Equity Research Fundamental Analyst before joining brokerage ActivTrades in 2011 to specialize in currency markets and commodities. In 2014 he published a book on gold and the gold market, followed by a new updated edition in 2018. This report is not an offer of or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Any material provided does not have regard to the specific investment objective and financial situation of any person who may receive it. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.

Carlo Alberto De Casa
Carlo Alberto De Casa

15/09/2021

Gold & Silver Market Analysis for Monday 13th of September

Kinesis Money - Macroeconomic Analysis The devil is in the details and investors are paying massive attention to all macroeconomic data, trying to interpret the next steps of monetary policies of both the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank (ECB). Inflation figures, in particular, are probably the most studied, as they hold the potential to be one of the main catalysts for pushing central banks to finally begin the so-called tapering (the process of reducing liquidity in the system). Therefore, this week is offering an interesting series of data releases, including the inflation levels recorded last month in the U.S. and in Europe. Particularly, inflation in the U.S. could be a significant market driver. The Federal Open Market Committees of the Fed (FOMC) will be meeting on the 21-22 September and further inflation rallies could push them to start the tapering procedure. Despite this, there are still good chances that the FOMC will wait at least to the following meeting before announcing the start of the process. Any dovish decision could weaken the U.S. Dollar, while the earlier tapering start may strengthen the greenback. These movements could as well impact gold and silver, typically (but not always) inversely related to the U.S. Dollar and the American interest rates. Kinesis Money - Gold Analysis The U.S Dollar started this week in green. This is probably the main reason that it's moderately pulling gold down, with the bullion price touching the support zone of $1,790 once again.  Gold price in $/gram remains steady between $57 and $58. 4h chart from Kinesis Exchange It is now clear that the gold rally has found a solid obstacle with the resistances placed at $1,820 and $1,835. Only a clear surpass of these thresholds could open further space for a new gain. Technically, the main trend is still supportive, but the rebound we have seen over the past few weeks seems to be losing its momentum, as inflation pressure is growing and more investors are expecting the Fed to increase its activity relatively soon. We shouldn’t forget about the risks coming from the Covid-19 Delta variant, which could force central banks to be more cautious with tapering, which could in return lift gold above $1,800 again. Kinesis Money - Silver Analysis The current silver price remains weak, being unable to show any solid signal of recovery and, overall, underperforming gold.  Both technical and graphical scenarios in the short term remain dangerous, without showing any significant rebounding impulse. Therefore, silver is traded below $24, looking for new bullish market drivers which are currently not showing up.  We should point out that the long term scenario could be much more entertaining, as there are interesting positive fundamental drivers, including the growing demand from the industrial sector. Carlo Alberto De Casa is Market Analyst for Kinesis Money. He also writes as a technical analyst for the Italian newspaper La Stampa. Carlo Alberto provides regular commentary for UK outlets including the BBC, Telegraph, the Independent Bloomberg & Reuters. He is also a commentator for CNBC Italy. He worked for Bloomberg as their Equity Research Fundamental Analyst before joining brokerage ActivTrades in 2011 to specialize in currency markets and commodities. In 2014 he published a book on gold and the gold market, followed by a new updated edition in 2018. This report is not an offer of or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Any material provided does not have regard to the specific investment objective and financial situation of any person who may receive it. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.

Carlo Alberto De Casa
Carlo Alberto De Casa

13/09/2021

Gold & Silver Market Analysis for Friday 10th of September

Kinesis Money - Macroeconomic Analysis The current week has had plenty of market drivers. Particularly, yesterday we had both the European Central bank (ECB) meeting and the weekly US Initial Jobless Claim. During the ECB meeting, Madame Lagarde declared reducing PEPP, the Pandemic Emergency Purchase Programme. She then followed with a careful explanation - in an excellent communication effort - that the ECB is not starting tapering, but is only recalibrating the amount of purchases of bonds. The economy is recovering quickly and the ECB is forecasting the Eurozone will return to pre-pandemic levels at the end of the year. In the US, the jobless claims hit the lowest level since early 2020, achieving a new post-pandemic low. At the same time, the Dow Jones Index declined, losing more than 150 points (-0,43%). This reaction could appear surprising for a non-expert: how can the market fall in response to positive macroeconomic data?  The answer is relatively simple. From one side, the U.S. strong data reduced fears of a slow-down of the labour market. Meanwhile, this means that the Federal Reserve could expedite reducing the current accommodative monetary policy. To summarize; investors are once again betting on the starting of the tapering date. Indeed, the Fed should start to reduce the liquidity in the system in the final months of 2021. But when exactly, is still a mystery. Kinesis Money - Gold Analysis The gold price is currently traded just above the psychological threshold of $1,800. Despite yesterday's market movers, gold had a relatively quiet trading session, moving within an under $20 range (less than 1%).  Gold price in $/gram - 4h chart - from Kinesis Exchange From a technical perspective, we have seen a decline earlier this week, as the barrier placed at $1,820 – 1,830 curbed gold recovery.  Bullion still appears to be placed in the lateral trading range between $1,790 and $1,820. Only a clear surpass of $1,820 first and $1,835 later could open space for new significant rallies, while bullion is experiencing a phase of laterality. Kinesis Money - Silver Analysis Silver seems to be short of energy as the recovery we have seen last week is now losing its strength. Despite today’s rebound, the price of the precious metal is showing a weekly decline of 2%. Investors are still looking for a clear directionality of silver, which seems currently placed in a lateral scenario. In short, the decline seen in August could be over, but we are not yet seeing a clear bullish trend and the price continues to dance between $24 and $25. Carlo Alberto De Casa is Market Analyst for Kinesis Money. He also writes as a technical analyst for the Italian newspaper La Stampa. Carlo Alberto provides regular commentary for UK outlets including the BBC, Telegraph, the Independent Bloomberg & Reuters. He is also a commentator for CNBC Italy. He worked for Bloomberg as their Equity Research Fundamental Analyst before joining brokerage ActivTrades in 2011 to specialize in currency markets and commodities. In 2014 he published a book on gold and the gold market, followed by a new updated edition in 2018. This report is not an offer of or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Any material provided does not have regard to the specific investment objective and financial situation of any person who may receive it. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.

Carlo Alberto De Casa
Carlo Alberto De Casa

10/09/2021

Gold & Silver Market Analysis for Wednesday 8th of September

Kinesis Gold Analysis Things are changing quickly in financial markets and investors require nerves of steel. After creating a solid bullish set-up, gold experienced its worst day of the entire month, losing over $30.  From a technical point of view, it is not a tragedy, but bullion is - once again – back in the lateral channel between $1,790 and $1,820. We should point out that the precious metal has broken down the 200-day moving average (which is currently located at around $1,810).  Gold price in $/gram from Kinesis Exchange The recent correction confirmed the importance of the $1,830 – 1,835 area, which is now the key level to surpass for starting a strong bullish movement, whereas a decline below $1,790 would represent a signal of weakness from both a technical and graphical point of view. There are various reasons behind the decline seen earlier this week. Indeed, we have seen a recovery of the greenback, linked to rising yields of the U.S. treasury bonds, with the 10-year bond jumping from 1.32% to 1.37%, before slowing down in the early trading this morning. But there are also some rumours about the possibility of the beginning of tapering from the ECB, which are pressuring the gold price.  Indeed, the hawkish pressure from Northern European bankers is growing, as inflation is showing some recovery signals, which are also noticeable in Europe. Despite this, it does not seem too likely that Ms Lagarde will announce any changes in the bond purchases in tomorrow’s meeting. Any hawkish statement from the ECB could push gold below the $1,790 mark, while a dovish ECB could lift up prices, giving new fuel to gold after the recent corrections. Kinesis Silver Analysis Silver recovery stopped sharply earlier this week. The precious metal was not able to surpass the resistance zone of $25 and the price declined to $24,4, following the weakness of gold and the rebound of the U.S. Dollar. From a technical point of view, the positive trend is not compromised for definite, but it is now crucial that silver can hold above the dynamic and static resistance placed at $24.2 – 24,25. Analyzing the gold-silver ratio, we can see that in the last few days silver recovered, pulling down the ratio from 77 to 73.5 and confirming investors' growing interest in the grey metal. Carlo Alberto De Casa is Market Analyst for Kinesis Money. He also writes as a technical analyst for the Italian newspaper La Stampa. Carlo Alberto provides regular commentary for UK outlets including the BBC, Telegraph, the Independent Bloomberg & Reuters. He is also a commentator for CNBC Italy. He worked for Bloomberg as their Equity Research Fundamental Analyst before joining brokerage ActivTrades in 2011 to specialize in currency markets and commodities. In 2014 he published a book on gold and the gold market, followed by a new updated edition in 2018. This report is not an offer of or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Any material provided does not have regard to the specific investment objective and financial situation of any person who may receive it. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.

Carlo Alberto De Casa
Carlo Alberto De Casa

08/09/2021

Gold & Silver Market Analysis for Monday 6th of September

Kinesis Gold Analysis The tapering will start relatively soon, with the U.S. Central banks most likely to begin reducing the liquidity on the system in the final months of 2021. Despite this, investors’ interest in gold remains at its peak.  On Friday, after the release of the U.S. nonfarm payrolls, the bullion price broke up the key resistance level of $1,820, getting closer to the 10-week-high of $1,835. Indeed, U.S. labour data was below expectations, with the immediate decline of the Dollar as a result. Gold price in $/gram from Kinesis Exchange The pressure on Jerome Powell to start tapering could probably slow down for a while, enabling the Federal Reserve to wait until December for the beginning of the process. From a technical point of view, we are still around 12% below the top reached in summer 2020, when bullion surpassed $2,070. however, the scenario continues to improve, opening spaces for a new rebound. The macroeconomic calendar of the next few days has a few interesting appointments, including the meeting of the Reserve Bank of Australia. Investors' main focus will probably be the ECB meeting on Thursday. Interest rates will remain at a historical low. However, after the recent inflation jump - there is a certain pressure from Ms Lagarde to reduce the Pepp stimulus (Pandemic Emergency Purchase Programme), announced last year, initiated to counter the economic crisis generated by Covid-19 and lockdown. Theoretically, any dovish decision could have a positive effect on gold, while hawkish movement could curb the recent rally, even if the main trend still appears positive.  We should point out that any dovish decision will also strengthen the US dollar, while any reduction of stimulus can lift up the euro. Therefore the effect on gold of the ECB could be varied and more difficult to forecast. Kinesis Silver Analysis Silver is finally showing muscles, as investors are rediscovering the metal. The price of the precious metal surpassed the key levels of $24 and 24,3, jumping to $24,8.  Silver price in $/ounce from Kinesis Exchange From a technical point of view, we are seeing a clear improvement of the picture, as many indicators are now showing a recovery of bullish sentiment. The first level to monitor is the psychological threshold of $25. A clear surpass of this zone could open space for further recoveries to $25.5 first and $25.9 later. Carlo Alberto De Casa is Market Analyst for Kinesis Money. He also writes as a technical analyst for the Italian newspaper La Stampa. Carlo Alberto provides regular commentary for UK outlets including the BBC, Telegraph, the Independent Bloomberg & Reuters. He is also a commentator for CNBC Italy. He worked for Bloomberg as their Equity Research Fundamental Analyst before joining brokerage ActivTrades in 2011 to specialize in currency markets and commodities. In 2014 he published a book on gold and the gold market, followed by a new updated edition in 2018. This report is not an offer of or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Any material provided does not have regard to the specific investment objective and financial situation of any person who may receive it. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.

Carlo Alberto De Casa
Carlo Alberto De Casa

06/09/2021

Gold & Silver Market Analysis for Thursday 2nd of September

Kinesis Gold Analysis The big rallying of gold seen in the last 15 days has found an obstacle with the key level of $1,820. Bullion is showing little volatility, while the price is still challenging this key resistance. In the current scenario gold has not yet found new fuel for continuing the recovery, even if the general set-up remains supportive. In other words, after the recent jump, the bullion price seems to have found a temporary equilibrium and new market drivers could be needed for further recoveries. The list of elements which can trigger further rallies is quite various: first of all, any dovish statement from the Federal Reserve will most likely weaken the U.S. Dollar, pushing investors to increase their long positions on gold. Moreover, any corrections on stocks could cause a new jump on bullion price. On a separate note, geopolitical crises and any factor which can trigger a return to risk-off, could be another element supportive for the investment demand of the precious metal. Gold price in $/gram from Kinesis Exchange From a technical point of view, the first signal of weakness will arrive only with a decline of prices below $1,790. And vice versa gold could continue its lateral consolidation, seeking new market drivers surpassing the key level of $1,820. Analyzing the macroeconomic calendar, we should also note that tomorrow afternoon there will be the release of the nonfarm payrolls. Any data below expectations could reduce pressure on the Federal Reserve for the beginning of tapering, while data above forecast can be seen as a confirmation of the start of tapering in Q4 2021. Kinesis Silver Analysis The volatility has slowed down also on the silver price, which is looking for new market drivers. Looking at the chart we should point out a crucial element: the graphical scenario is improving.  Silver price in $/ounce from Kinesis Exchange Silver is holding steady above the resistance zone of $24, as investors’ interest seems to be increasing. A jump above $24,32 – 24,35 would open space for further recoveries. On the fundamental side, the physical demand for silver is expected to increase in the next few months, thanks to the growing demand from the industrial sector. Carlo Alberto De Casa is Market Analyst for Kinesis. He also writes as a technical analyst for the Italian newspaper La Stampa. Carlo Alberto provides regular commentary for UK outlets including the BBC, Telegraph, the Independent Bloomberg & Reuters. He is also a commentator for CNBC Italy. He worked for Bloomberg as their Equity Research Fundamental Analyst before joining brokerage ActivTrades in 2011 to specialize in currency markets and commodities. In 2014 he published a book on gold and the gold market, followed by a new updated edition in 2018. This report is not an offer of or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Any material provided does not have regard to the specific investment objective and financial situation of any person who may receive it. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.

Carlo Alberto De Casa
Carlo Alberto De Casa

02/09/2021

Gold & Silver Market Analysis for Tuesday 31st of August

Kinesis Macroeconomic Analysis The U.S. stock index Standard & Poor’s 500 just reached the 12th new high in August, confirming that the markets have digested Jerome Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole Symposium. The Federal Reserve Chairman was not extremely dovish, but his “wait and see” model – without formally announcing the beginning of tapering – was enough to trigger new rallies on stocks and gold, while the U.S. Dollar declined. Yes, the tapering will probably start in the final months of 2021, but this was more or less expected. Moreover, Powell highlighted that the first interest rate hike is not planned for a relatively long time and is not related to tapering. All this lifted up stocks and particularly the technology sector (who usually pay fewer dividends), with Apple surpassing 2.5 trillion of the market cap. Kinesis Gold Analysis Analyzing the scenario for gold, it seems we are back again in the lateral trading range between $1,790 and $1,820. The slow dance in this tiny range of prices was the leit motiv during the second half of July.  Gold price in $/gram from Kinesis Exchange Now the scenario could be different. Overall, the technical picture for gold appears stronger, after the rally of the last two weeks. So far the resistance placed at $1,820 has managed to stop further recoveries. Gold is trying to break up this level, helped by the temporary weakness of the greenback.  A solid surpass of this threshold would open space for new rallies, with a first target placed at $1,835, while the next key resistances are located at $1,860, $1,875 and $1,915/1,920. Vice versa only a decline below $1,890 could be seen as a signal of weakness. Kinesis Silver Analysis Silver is showing an interesting sign of recovery. After having been forgotten by investors for weeks, the price has managed to surpass the first resistance placed at $24. The current rebound is finding strength and could be the beginning of a new positive movement. The next few trading sessions will tell us more about the solidity of the rebound, while both technical and graphical scenarios are improving. Carlo Alberto De Casa is Market Analyst for Kinesis. He also writes as a technical analyst for the Italian newspaper La Stampa. Carlo Alberto provides regular commentary for UK outlets including the BBC, Telegraph, the Independent Bloomberg & Reuters. He is also a commentator for CNBC Italy. He worked for Bloomberg as their Equity Research Fundamental Analyst before joining brokerage ActivTrades in 2011 to specialize in currency markets and commodities. In 2014 he published a book on gold and the gold market, followed by a new updated edition in 2018. This report is not an offer of or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Any material provided does not have regard to the specific investment objective and financial situation of any person who may receive it. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.

Carlo Alberto De Casa
Carlo Alberto De Casa

31/08/2021

Gold & Silver Market Analysis for Friday 27th of August

Kinesis Macroeconomic Analysis The Jackson Hole Symposium is finishing today and investors are awaiting Jerome Powell's speech in order to learn more about the next steps of the monetary policy adopted by the Federal Reserve, and especially about the expected tapering start. When will the Fed begin reducing the system liquidity? For a non-expert, the exact tapering date will not make a significant difference, whether it will be in late 2021 or even in Q1 2022. For investors, however, this could trigger new market movements. Probably there is too much focus around the precise timing, while its modality and speed should also be taken into consideration. A dovish Fed (start in Q1 2022) could help the rally on stocks to continue moving further, while a hawkish decision (start in Q4 2021), probably would strengthen the greenback. This could also be a negative market driver for stocks and potentially for the commodities sector as well. Kinesis Gold Analysis Bulls and bears are continuing their silent battle, to determine the gold price. At the moment, there is not a clear winner, even if the positive momentum has taken the lead. Indeed, the fact that gold is holding steady after the recent gain is a positive factor, which is also supported by the most recent (past few hours) rally above $1,800. Gold price in $/gram from Kinesis Exchange From a technical point of view, the overall situation of gold is improving. Bullion has surpassed the resistance zone of $1,790 and could now try to approach the next key level, placed at $1,820, while the graphical analysis remains moderately positive. Only the hawkish Federal Reserve could trigger some bearish movements, with space in this case for a new test on the support area of $1,750 – 1,760. Kinesis Silver Analysis Silver remains in enerving laterality. In the last few days, the price has been moving between $23,4 and $24, without being able to surpass the key resistance zone of $24. Silver is coming from weeks of weakness, as the technical scenario remains fragile. The Federal Reserve’s decision on the system liquidity, might potentially result in critical consequences for both silver and gold. Carlo Alberto De Casa is Market Analyst for Kinesis. He also writes as a technical analyst for the Italian newspaper La Stampa. Carlo Alberto provides regular commentary for UK outlets including the BBC, Telegraph, the Independent Bloomberg & Reuters. He is also a commentator for CNBC Italy. He worked for Bloomberg as their Equity Research Fundamental Analyst before joining brokerage ActivTrades in 2011 to specialize in currency markets and commodities. In 2014 he published a book on gold and the gold market, followed by a new updated edition in 2018. This report is not an offer of or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Any material provided does not have regard to the specific investment objective and financial situation of any person who may receive it. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.

Carlo Alberto De Casa
Carlo Alberto De Casa

27/08/2021

Gold & Silver Market Analysis for Wednesday 25th of August

Kinesis Macroeconomic Analysis Is negative news capable of pulling up the financial market? Although it seems like a paradox, it is exactly what we have often seen in the last few months. Fear of Covid-19 and then subsequent waves of fear of its variants, forced the Federal Reserve to be extremely dovish.  In the last few days, we heard the rumours about the Federal Reserve concerns that the spread of Delta Variant could decrease the speed of the economic recovery. These rumours sparked new doubts in regard to an early start of the U.S. Central Bank tapering. All this negative news has resulted, once again, in a new record high on stocks, paradoxically celebrating a negative economic situation. However, the consequences of these rumours are equally interesting for many other financial assets. On the Forex currency markets, for example, we have seen a decline of the U.S. Dollar, while the whole precious metal sector rebounded. Gold price in $/gram from Kinesis Exchange - for the month of August Kinesis Gold Analysis The prospect of an unexpectedly expedited tapering from the Federal reserve, impacted gold in the last few weeks, generating a sell-off on the price.  More recently, things have taken another turn, gaining a strong positive momentum on gold. The price of gold rebounded, surpassing $1,750 in just a couple of hours, and shortly after, reached the key resistance of $1790 - in these last few days. This occurred just before it reached a top of $1,812 on the futures contract, while the spot price was traded just a few dollars below. Bullion is therefore once again inserted in the lateral trading range between $1,790 and $1,820 and a clear surpass of one of these levels could trigger new directional movement. In early trading today gold is slightly declining. We can see this as a consolidation after the long rally, but also in part related to the modest recovery shown by the greenback. We should remember that the next catalyst for gold (and more in general, for financial markets) will definitely be the Jackson Hole symposium. Investors are awaiting Jerome Powell's speech, to learn more about the expected timing of the tapering. Kinesis Silver Analysis In the last few days, silver slightly recovered momentum, surpassing the first resistance zone of $23,5. Despite this, the precious metal was not able to reach the next key level of $24. A clear surpass of the $24 threshold – ideally supported by high trading volume – could indicate a return of bullish momentum. Silver is recovering, when compared to gold, with a ratio between these two metals placed in the region of 76. In other words, roughly 76 ounces of silver would be needed to purchase one ounce of gold. Carlo Alberto De Casa is Market Analyst for Kinesis. He also writes as a technical analyst for the Italian newspaper La Stampa. Carlo Alberto provides regular commentary for UK outlets including the BBC, Telegraph, the Independent Bloomberg & Reuters. He is also a commentator for CNBC Italy. He worked for Bloomberg as their Equity Research Fundamental Analyst before joining brokerage ActivTrades in 2011 to specialize in currency markets and commodities. In 2014 he published a book on gold and the gold market, followed by a new updated edition in 2018. This report is not an offer of or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Any material provided does not have regard to the specific investment objective and financial situation of any person who may receive it. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.

Carlo Alberto De Casa
Carlo Alberto De Casa

25/08/2021

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