Precious Metals

Stay up to date with the latest news in precious metals and find out which gold and silver-based digital currencies and stablecoins are worth investing in.

Take a deep dive into the world of physical gold and silver investing with financial market insiders and explore trading tips and saving opportunities with precious metals experts.

How will Basel III rules impact the gold price?

Andrew Maguire looks ahead to the introduction of Basel III rules in March 2021 and breaks down the expected global impact on banks, the gold markets and the price of gold itself. Watch this week’s Live from the Vault for: New year targets for gold and silver.The price liquidity providers and trading houses see silver hitting early in the New Year.Insight into gold over the holiday season.Physical delivery demand for COMEX gold continues to escalate.Details on the cash settlements banks are taking for November contracts. Table of Content What is Basel III? And what will change? When does Basel III take effect? What are the implications of Basel III? Is Basel III mandatory? What does Basel III mean for banks’ gold reserves? What does this mean for the gold? What is Basel III? And what will change? Basel III (pronounced Bah-zel) is a set of international regulatory rules introduced to improve the regulation, supervision, and risk management of banks. Currently, banks are able to classify gold as a Tier III asset, the riskiest asset class. However, following the implementation of Basel III rules, gold allocation must be moved to a Tier I asset. When does Basel III take effect? According to the FSB, the Basel III reforms are in the early stages and will take full effect from January 2023. What are the implications of Basel III? Andrew Maguire reports that Basel III rules coming into effect in March 2011 through to January 2021 will eliminate the 50% evaluation haircut on physical gold reserves. For those of you unfamiliar, a ‘haircut’ is the difference between the current market value of an asset and the value given to that asset for purposes of calculating regulatory capital or loan collateral. The precious metals expert explains the absence of a haircut is extremely important if unallocated gold continues to be utilised as a funding source for gold leases at current levels. For example, the Bank of International Settlements (BIS) has shown record leasing flows, all consisting of unallocated gold. Andrew Maguire predicts that the onerous financial conditions of Basel III would lead to massive leasing costs. Given the fragility of the paper to physical gold condition, with physical delivery demand for COMEX gold continuing to escalate, Andrew Maguire reports that Basel III rules are proving a source of great concern for the LBMA. Watch Andrew Maguire explore the unprecedented physical bullion delivery requests for COMEX Gold in last week’s ‘Live from the Vault’. Is Basel III mandatory? Yes, it does. The European Banking Authority announced in March 2021 that from December the Basel III monitoring exercise will become mandatory. Internationally active banks-members are committed to implementing and applying Basel III standards within the time frame established by the Basel Committee. This will happen in order to have a better sample size from more banking and credit institutions. What does Basel III mean for banks' gold reserves? Currently, paper gold is not a 1st tier asset. Only fully allocated physical bullion that has no counterparty risk attached that qualifies as a first-tier asset. As we mentioned earlier, Basel III rules coming into effect in March through to January 22 will eliminate any valuation haircut. The new rules will require a provable 1:1 ratio of fully allocated gold reserves, with no counterparty risk. Under Basel III rules, every central bank will be able to revalue its physical reserves higher, from a current 50% haircut into a fully cash exchangeable asset. Andrew Maguire believes that central banks will be able to pay off massive swathes of debt by revaluing gold. According to the precious metals expert, gold would not only act as a cash asset, but would also behove central banks to revalue the dollar price of gold. What does this mean for the gold? Andrew Maguire believes Basel III rules will lead to a sanctioned gold reevaluation, while ultimately driving a more physical market. In this week’s episode of Live from the Vault Andrew Maguire looks at how Basel III rules will affect the price of gold and reveals the level at which he estimates the precious metal will be revalued. Andrew Maguire’s parting thought: Basel III rules are going to be bullish for gold. Next Episode: Andrew Maguire carries out another detailed round-up of the gold and silver markets. Don’t miss out: Subscribe to the Kinesis YouTube channel The opinions expressed in this publication are those of Andrew Maguire and do not purport to reflect the official policy or position of Kinesis. This publication is for informational purposes only and is not intended to be a solicitation, offering or recommendation of any security, commodity, derivative, investment management service or advisory service and is not commodity trading advice. This publication does not intend to provide investment, tax or legal advice on either a general or specific basis.

Sam Briggs
Sam Briggs

18/12/2020

How will the US election impact the gold price?

Andrew Maguire looks ahead to the gold price after US election day is finally over. https://www.youtube.com/embed/cEMdhPtTGR4 Talking Gold’ - a fortnightly update from Kinesis Director and precious metals expert, Andrew Maguire, providing a detailed round-up of the recent action in the gold and silver markets - a regular feature from the Kinesis Youtube show ‘Live from the Vault’. In this week’s deep dive into the gold and silver markets, Andrew Maguire provides insight into the short and long term impact of the US election on the gold price. The gold price after the US election Andrew Maguire believes that regardless of the ultimate resolution of the US election, once an initial period of volatility settles the outlook for gold is positive. For positive indicators for the gold price, the precious metals expert points to the massive stimulus package announced by each presidential candidate. According to Andrew Maguire, the vast inflow of stimulus into the economy will balloon global debt, in turn, swelling physical gold demand. Relative to weakening fiat currencies, gold will do what it has done for thousands of years, act as a safe haven. Andrew Maguire International safe-haven physical demand In the wider market, Andrew Maguire shares word of safe-haven demand coming in from large European and Asian banks. The precious metals expert reports the banks are already securing physical gold and silver against paper gold and silver, ahead of an anticipated depreciation of fiat value. In an unprecedented move, the banks intend to take physical delivery for December gold long Futures contracts. The reports have confirmed by a source at the desk of a very large first-tier European bank, disclosing that their institution is busy locking in Futures contracts for delivery. The professionally hedged positions are seeking delivery, at the end of November. Watch Andrew Maguire reveal China’s unprecedented move into physical silver, in last week’s Talking Gold from fortnightly Kinesis show ‘Live from the Vault’. What does this mean for traders and investors? In light of the current market conditions, Andrew Maguires suggests that margined traders should watch their “stops or stand aside until the situation becomes clearer.” Speaking on this period for investors, the long-time wholesaler believes “this is a hell of an opportunity to average in and buy some gold and silver at bargain prices.” In the terms of the long term outlook for gold, Andrew Maguire predicts that “once the volatility has settled, very strong fundamentals will come into focus.” Don’t miss out: Subscribe to the Kinesis YouTube channel Next Episode: Andrew Maguire carries out another detailed round-up of the gold and silver markets. The opinions expressed in this publication are those of Andrew Maguire and do not purport to reflect the official policy or position of Kinesis. This publication is for informational purposes only and is not intended to be a solicitation, offering or recommendation of any security, commodity, derivative, investment management service or advisory service and is not commodity trading advice. This publication does not intend to provide investment, tax or legal advice on either a general or specific basis.

Sam Briggs
Sam Briggs

06/11/2020

China's gold and silver buying spree tightens physical supply

Andrew Maguire explores the marketwide implications of China buying gold and silver in vast quantities. https://www.youtube.com/embed/B2SKLq3WG10 ‘Talking Gold’ - a fortnightly update from Kinesis Director and precious metals expert, Andrew Maguire, providing a detailed round-up of the recent action in the gold and silver markets - a regular feature from the Kinesis Youtube show ‘Live from the Vault’. In this week’s deep dive into the gold and silver markets, Andrew Maguire reveals China’s unprecedented move into physical silver. The precious metals expert also shares word of the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) securing huge quantities of gold doré bars from the African region. Andrew Maguire breaks down the combined impact of these developments on the paper markets and physical supply. China sources African doré bar supply Andrew Maguire reveals China is buying gold doré bars in huge quantities, circumventing the LBMA bullion banks and refineries. According to industry sources, the People’s Bank of China is nowstrategically frontrunning every available ounce of the raw material. What's more, Andrew Maguire reports the PBOC has secured thousands of tonnes of raw supply at close to all-in global mine costs. As a result, the LBMA is losing out on the cheap mine supply they have relied on to suppress the gold price in the markets. However, according to Andrew Maguire, the structural change in bullion flows has gone unreported by mainstream media sources. With most coverage misreading a reduction of flows from the West to China, as a lack of demand for gold. China’s move into the physical silver market Andrew Maguire has it on reliable information that China has aggressively moved into the physical silver market. According to Andrew Maguire’s sources, the nation is buying physical silver mine supply in very large size. The precious metal expert believes the unprecedented move is already tightening up wholesale supply. Andrew Maguire reports that wholesale dealers are already experiencing the effects. Such as dealers having their silver allocations cut, even more so, in a period of already very tight supply. Watch Andrew Maguire reveal the algorithms behind the recent downwards price movement in gold and silver, in last week’s Talking Gold from fortnightly Kinesis show ‘Live from the Vault’. Impact on the paper markets As Andrew Maguire sees it, this shift in bullion flows explains the disconnected margin increase in the paper markets last week. Andrew Maguire reports never seeing “such a large percentage increase on an overnight increase in borrowing costs” for Silver and Gold Futures. For example, Andrew Maguire cites a 14 per cent, or $2000, per lot increase in SI Futures margins. In general, there are only two reasons for a significant margin increase: Very large price riseVery disruptive volatility However, the Futures markets have remained in the same flat range through the last 4 COT weekly. Following four weeks of flat prices, Andrew Maguire believes the hikes in margins are otherwise unexplainable. There is absolutely no credible reason for those margins to be increased. Andrew Maguire What does this mean for the gold and silver markets? In conclusion, as Andrew Maguire sees it, a tiny percentage of supply disruption can alter the paper game. The aggressive move of China buying gold and silver in huge quantities is tightening supply, and leading to tighter restrictions. Andrew Maguire believes tighter supply and tighter restrictions exhibit a firmly bullish setup. Andrew Maguire’s parting thought: Given what’s coming down the pike here I would not be sitting down waiting for a possible price dip, because you could be left on the sidelines here. Don’t miss out: Subscribe to the Kinesis YouTube channel Next Episode: Andrew Maguire carries out another detailed round-up of the gold and silver markets. The opinions expressed in this publication are those of Andrew Maguire and do not purport to reflect the official policy or position of Kinesis. This publication is for informational purposes only and is not intended to be a solicitation, offering or recommendation of any security, commodity, derivative, investment management service or advisory service and is not commodity trading advice. This publication does not intend to provide investment, tax or legal advice on either a general or specific basis.

Sam Briggs
Sam Briggs

23/10/2020

What’s happened to the gold and silver price?

Andrew Maguire exposes the algorithms behind recent gold and silver market volatility. ‘Talking Gold’ - a fortnightly update from Kinesis Director and precious metals expert, Andrew Maguire, providing a detailed round-up of the recent action in the gold and silver markets - a regular feature from the Kinesis Youtube show ‘Live from the Vault’. In this week’s exploration of the markets, Andrew Maguire exposes the algorithms behind the recent downward price movement in gold and silver. The precious metals expert breaks down why the bearish correlations of these algos are unwinding - and where this leaves gold and silver. How are algorithms influencing the price of gold and silver? With the COMEX a 99% algo-driven market, Andrew Maguire sees orchestrated algo as the driving force behind the recent market volatility in gold and silver. The agnostic algos are programmed to search out and latch onto any possible correlation, completely disconnected from supply-demand fundamentals. For this reason, high-frequency trading bots are able to influence these largely neutral algorithms. According to Andrew Maguire, a tide of algorithms chase to source a tick either side of any generated price movements, which causes volatility in the gold or silver markets. Over the last week or so, Andrew Maguire reports these algorithms have been programmed to automatically sell rallies into the downsloping 10-day moving average. The footprints are clear, officials have stepped in to directionally chart paint correlations and incentivise neutral algos to stampede in the direction of whatever is currently working.Andrew Maguire Is the current algorithm game up? Stepping through the footprints, Andrew Maguire noted the first bullish signs that these directionally orchestrated algo correlations were becoming bullishly disconnected. In Andrew Maguire’s opinion, the disconnect was due to 2 major factors: The impact of the 100-day moving average, a level deliberately front run by insiders.The political uncertainty leading up to the US election, intensified by US President Donald Trump testing positive for COVID-19. Andrew Maguire reports a contraction of the window between the aforementioned downsloping 10-day moving average and the rising 100-day moving average. As the window tightens, it becomes increasingly difficult for officials to maintain a cap on the 10-day moving average. Secondly, in Andrew Maguire’s opinion, uncertainty surrounding the upcoming US elections is driving safe-haven demand. A factor that was exacerbated last Friday morning, when Trump tested positive for COVID-19. The black swan event triggered an unfactored simultaneous tail risk drive into both gold and the US dollar, serving to further disconnect unnatural algo correlations. Watch Andrew Maguire explain the paper market footprints that signalled an imminent raid on deliverable physical COMEX gold. When algorithms cease to serve their purpose, new correlations are simply hunted out. If insiders are caught offside into a technical and fundamental oversold condition, in a physically delivered contract, they will always defend their positions. Andrew Maguire predicts that the bearish for gold correlations will continue to unwind. Where the dollar index is concerned, the precious metals expert expects gold to rise alongside the US dollar, with algos eventually latching on to that trend. Andrew Maguire’s parting thought: These largely unfactored tail risks will be very assisted for all safe havens, we expect gold to do what it said on the tin - in such uncertainty, as it’s done for thousands of years. Don’t miss out: Subscribe to the Kinesis YouTube channel Next Episode: Andrew Maguire carries out another detailed round-up of the gold and silver markets. The opinions expressed in this publication are those of Andrew Maguire and do not purport to reflect the official policy or position of Kinesis. This publication is for informational purposes only and is not intended to be a solicitation, offering or recommendation of any security, commodity, derivative, investment management service or advisory service and is not commodity trading advice. This publication does not intend to provide investment, tax or legal advice on either a general or specific basis.

Sam Briggs
Sam Briggs

09/10/2020