Gold looks set to end August on a downward trend, extending the month’s losses with the precious metal set for its fifth consecutive monthly decline, its worst run in 4 years.
The catalyst for gold’s reversal in fortunes was the switch in policy by the Federal Reserve to a more hawkish monetary policy in April that has resulted in a series of interest rate hikes in recent months as well as a reduction of the amount of the debt it holds. In some senses little has changed in the intervening months with Fed Chair Jerome Powell recently reiterating the need for more rate increases in order to bring inflation back down to its 2% target and more debt being allowed to mature.
In this environment, gold has struggled as higher interest rates make interest-paying assets such as bonds more attractive. The rally seen earlier in the month where gold climbed above $1,800 an ounce has proven illusory as it was built on the false expectation that promising US economic data would reduce the pace and severity of future interest rate hikes the Fed would need to impose. However, recent comments by a slew of Fed officials, culminating in Powell’s recent hawkish warning, have brought gold’s price crashing back down and it is now headed towards $1,700 an ounce.
How gold reacts as it approaches this key threshold will be demonstrative of the amount of support that remains for the metal. While there remain fears of a global recession as well as the ongoing war in Ukraine, there should be enough support to ensure gold doesn’t dip below the lows touched in July but on the other side it is hard to see how gold can make significant gains when central banks across the world are intent on raising interest rates.
Rupert is a Market Analyst for Kinesis Money, responsible for updating the community with insights and analysis on the gold and silver markets. He brings with him a breadth of experience in writing about energy and commodities having worked as an oil markets reporter and then precious metals reporter during the seven years he worked at Bloomberg News.
As well as market analysis, Rupert writes longer-form thought leadership pieces on topics ranging from carbon markets, the growth of renewable energy and the challenges of avoiding greenwash while investing sustainably.
This publication is for informational purposes only and is not intended to be a solicitation, offering or recommendation of any security, commodity, derivative, investment management service or advisory service and is not commodity trading advice. This publication does not intend to provide investment, tax or legal advice on either a general or specific basis.
