Gold prices crashed to a two-month low on Tuesday after figures showed US inflation fell by less than expected in January.
Gold prices fell sharply below $2,000 an ounce on Tuesday for the first time since December 13, 2023, dropping as low as $1,991 an ounce. That compares with around $2,020 an ounce in late deals on Monday.
The trigger for the sudden price drop was the release of US CPI inflation figures on Tuesday, which showed a value of 3.1% year on year, down from 3.4% in December, but above market expectations of 2.9%.
The higher-than-expected inflation figures suggest the US Fed may need to keep interest rates unchanged for a longer period in order to get inflation down to target levels. Data from interest rate traders implies a roughly 36% chance of a 25-basis point cut in interest rates at the Fed’s planned meeting on May 1, representing a shrinking expectation compared with recent weeks. Ultimately any decision to start a rate-cutting cycle will be subject to further data on inflation, growth and jobs in the US.
Looking ahead, eyes will be on the Euro Area GDP growth rate for the fourth quarter of 2023, due for release on Wednesday, as well as monthly industrial production figures. Then on Thursday, the markets will get an update on weekly US initial jobless claims for the latest pulse check on the US economy.
Frank’s experience covering the commodities markets spans 22 years, with a particular specialism in metals, carbon and energy markets. He has worked as a senior editor for S&P Global Commodity Insights (formerly Platts) and before this, at ICIS-LOR, a part of Reed Business Information (Reed Elsevier), where he covered the petrochemicals markets from 2003 to 2005.
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