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Glimmer of Hope Sees Equities Make Tentative Gains But Outlook Remains Bleak

Macroeconomic Analysis After the fall comes the recovery, well a recovery of sorts at least. Finally a glimmer of green for equities markets after days of punishing losses. Yet it shows the extent of the declines recorded both earlier this week and since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine more broadly, that today’s healthy gains across global indices are only trimming the weekly and monthly losses. Where that optimism is originating from is difficult to understand as the situation in Ukraine remains woefully bleak with no sign of an easy end to the war. The united front being shown by the US and its European allies is the sole source of hope that these ever more punishing sanctions, that now include a banning of Russian oil exports into the US and the UK, will force Russian President Vladimir Putin to agree on a peaceful end to the conflict in Ukraine, particularly as in the face of fierce Ukrainian resistance, his planned takeover is becoming much more protracted than he surely must have originally envisaged. These severe financial sanctions will need to bring about a swift end to the war in Ukraine before they severely damage the tentative economic recovery that was in place prior to Russia’s invasion. That glimmer of hope remains for now that the global economic fallout will be capped and the recovery can resume but the short-term impact of the sanctions with record-high energy and metals prices already damaging demand means that the window of opportunity is ever narrowing. Gold Price Analysis The rush to gold with huge trading volumes has pushed the price close to its all-time high but with equities having a rare positive session so far, gold has dropped back a fraction from these record levels. However the ultimate safe-haven asset remains well above $2,000 an ounce, a threshold gold has only passed a few times in its extensive trading history to illustrate the flood of support it has benefited from. Gold ($/g) Chart - from Kinesis Exchange - Gold over a year time frame While the war in Ukraine sadly shows no sign of coming to a swift conclusion, there remains every chance that gold can yet achieve its highest ever price. In normal circumstances, tomorrow’s European Central Bank interest rate decision and US inflation figures would be the dominant focus of traders but given the geopolitical situation, these two macroeconomic features have been relegated to mere backdrops. That said, signs that central banks are now plotting a less hawkish approach could be the nudge that gold needs to break fresh ground. Find out more about what Kinesis has to offer Learn More Rupert is a Market Analyst for Kinesis Money, responsible for updating the community with insights and analysis on the gold and silver markets. He brings with him a breadth of experience inwriting about energy and commodities having worked as an oil markets reporter and then precious metals reporter during the seven years he worked at Bloomberg News. As well as market analysis, Rupert writes longer-form thought leadership pieces on topics ranging from carbon markets, the growth of renewableenergy and the challenges of avoiding greenwash while investing sustainably.

Rupert Rowling
Rupert Rowling

09/03/2022

Silver Slips Back Amid Rare Day of Optimism for Equities but Holds Above Key Level

Macroeconomic Analysis After the fall comes the recovery, well a recovery of sorts at least. Finally a glimmer of green for equities markets after days of punishing losses. Yet it shows the extent of the declines recorded both earlier this week and since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine more broadly, that today’s healthy gains across global indices are only trimming the weekly and monthly losses.  Where that optimism is originating from is difficult to understand as the situation in Ukraine remains woefully bleak with no sign of an easy end to the war. The united front being shown by the US and its European allies is the sole source of hope that these ever more punishing sanctions, that now include a banning of Russian oil exports into the US and the UK, will force Russian President Vladimir Putin to agree on a peaceful end to the conflict in Ukraine, particularly as in the face of fierce Ukrainian resistance, his planned takeover is becoming much more protracted than he surely must have originally envisaged. These severe financial sanctions will need to bring about a swift end to the war in Ukraine before they severely damage the tentative economic recovery that was in place prior to Russia’s invasion. That glimmer of hope remains for now that the global economic fallout will be capped and the recovery can resume but the short-term impact of the sanctions with record-high energy and metals prices already damaging demand means that the window of opportunity is ever narrowing. Silver Price Analysis Just like gold, silver has slipped back a fraction today amid a rare day of optimism on equity markets. It is worth noting that silver’s decline has been smaller in percentage terms than gold with the price holding above $26 an ounce. Silver ($/oz) Chart - from Kinesis Exchange - Silver over a year time frame Silver’s more industrial use, including in photovoltaic cells for example that is likely to see increased demand amid the energy transition, has seen silver benefit from both its haven appeal as well as the whole metals complex being pulled up.  Find out more about what Kinesis has to offer Learn More Rupert is a Market Analyst for Kinesis Money, responsible for updating the community with insights and analysis on the gold and silver markets. He brings with him a breadth of experience inwriting about energy and commodities having worked as an oil markets reporter and then precious metals reporter during the seven years he worked at Bloomberg News. As well as market analysis, Rupert writes longer-form thought leadership pieces on topics ranging from carbon markets, the growth of renewableenergy and the challenges of avoiding greenwash while investing sustainably.

Rupert Rowling
Rupert Rowling

09/03/2022

Talk of Embargo on Russian Oil Sees Crude Hit $140, Exacerbating Inflation Fears

Macroeconomic Analysis Reports of the US mulling a ban on the exports of Russian oil has rocked markets, sending the price of crude oil up to $140 a barrel and causing equities to tumble amid fears of already high inflation becoming even more exacerbated.  With the diplomatic option long since closed and with Russia’s invasion of Ukraine showing no sign of slowing, the US is said to be in discussions with Japan and European countries about an embargo on Russian oil as the latest financial sanction to be levied against the country. While the sanctions up until now have tried to minimize the collateral impact their imposition would have on the rest of the world, given Russia’s central importance in global oil supplies, this latest mulled measure would leave the world scrambling around to find alternative supplies with the possibility of the embargo on Venezuelan oil being lifted to offset the Russian one.  As the cost of living continues to rise, investors will look to see the reaction by central banks with Wednesday bringing the European Central Bank’s interest rate decision followed by the latest US inflation figures on Thursday. Gold Price Analysis A fresh crisis on markets, this time triggered by talk of an embargo on Russian oil, has seen gold gain once again to now be challenging the hugely significant level of $2,000 an ounce at levels not seen since August 2020.  As the war in Ukraine intensifies and the cost of commodities continue to spiral, likely causing a sustained period of high inflation, investors have piled into safe-haven assets like gold as one of the few areas of markets likely to hold their value at this time of geopolitical and - potentially soon - economic crisis.  Gold ($/g) Chart - from Kinesis Exchange - In a month, gold has climbed to $64 per gram Having initially had a slightly subdued reaction to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, gold now has real momentum behind it on the back of a series of price surges and could soon set an all-time high in dollar terms, having already done so in a number of other major currencies. Silver Price Analysis Silver has benefited from dual supporting factors from the war in Ukraine that has seen investors rush to haven assets as well as driving up commodity prices, including precious metals. On the back of this wave of support, silver has broken through resistance at around $25.40 an ounce to climb above $26 an ounce to be trading at levels last seen in August 2021. With the factors behind silver’s current rise not going away any time soon, there is a strong case for further gains for the metal still.  Find out more about what Kinesis has to offer Learn More Rupert is a Market Analyst for Kinesis Money, responsible for updating the community with insights and analysis on the gold and silver markets. He brings with him a breadth of experience inwriting about energy and commodities having worked as an oil markets reporter and then precious metals reporter during the seven years he worked at Bloomberg News. As well as market analysis, Rupert writes longer-form thought leadership pieces on topics ranging from carbon markets, the growth of renewableenergy and the challenges of avoiding greenwash while investing sustainably.

Rupert Rowling
Rupert Rowling

07/03/2022

Russia’s Shelling of Nuclear Power Plant Sees Investors Flee From Equities Again

The conflict in Ukraine has worsened sharply with Russia’s shelling of Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant, the largest in Europe, suddenly raising the alert of this military invasion escalating into a nuclear war. As a result, the G-7 foreign ministers are meeting today while UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson is calling for an immediate meeting of the United Nations Security Council. This nuclear element and all the worst Cold War fears it reawakens, has understandably cast a vast cloud over any macroeconomic event. So while on a typical Friday, investor attention would be on the release of US non-farm payrolls, which are forecast to show another strong month of employment figures in February. Indeed, the economic outlook looks healthy with positive industrial construction data published today by France, Germany and Italy. Yet in a clear sign of how concerning globally the war in Ukraine is, stock markets are plunging again with the Euro Stoxx 500 sinking to a 12-month low amid another day where global indices are a sea of red. Gold Price Analysis Gold ($/g) - 15 minutes chart from Kinesis Exchange Gold has been one of the few beneficiaries of the dreadful scenes in Ukraine with investors rushing to safe havens at a time of crisis. But while the price is now trading at around $1,940 an ounce at levels not seen for 14 months, it has failed to climb noticeably higher despite the dramatic escalation in the Ukrainian conflict with Russia’s shelling of Europe’s largest nuclear power plant. This suggests that macroeconomic factors are still playing a key role in investors’ attitudes towards gold with Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell reaffirming the US central bank’s intention to raise interest rates later this month, starting off a series of hikes to tackle inflation. While the Fed will have to tread “carefully” given the situation in Ukraine, this confirmation of interest rate hikes is putting a ceiling on gold, with its lack of yield making it less attractive in a climate of rising interest rates. Silver Price Analysis Silver looks to have found its ceiling for the time being with the precious metal now trading comfortably above $25 an ounce but failing to break through resistance at around $25.60. After a similar push in November broke down at similar levels, silver’s upward momentum on the back of the rush to haven assets looks to have stalled. Yet for investors who have held silver since the start of the year, it has still been a rewarding couple of months with the price having gained almost $3 an ounce. Find out more about what Kinesis has to offer Learn More Rupert is a Market Analyst for Kinesis Money, responsible for updating the community with insights and analysis on the gold and silver markets. He brings with him a breadth of experience inwriting about energy and commodities having worked as an oil markets reporter and then precious metals reporter during the seven years he worked at Bloomberg News. As well as market analysis, Rupert writes longer-form thought leadership pieces on topics ranging from carbon markets, the growth of renewableenergy and the challenges of avoiding greenwash while investing sustainably.

Rupert Rowling
Rupert Rowling

04/03/2022

Equities Start to Stem Bleeding But Surging Commodities Raise Inflation Fears

Macroeconomic Analysis The bleeding on equities as a result of war breaking out in Ukraine has continued into Wednesday, albeit at lower levels than the dramatic plunges earlier in the week. While equities decline, commodities continue to climb as the world faces the prospect of considerably lower supplies of a whole host of metals and grains given the importance of Russia, and to a lesser extent Ukraine, in producing these commodities. Oil, in particular, is surging with the price breaking through $110 a barrel to levels not seen since July 2014, prompting the US to announce a coordinated release of 60 million barrels of strategic supplies. The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) meets today to discuss its own response but isn’t expected to change tack from the supply levels agreed by the broader OPEC+ group, which includes Russia. The impact of these surging energy and commodity prices will be increased inflation with the EU publishing its flash estimate for February this morning. Given it is already at a record high of 5.1%, the likelihood of a new record will further add to pressure from European central banks to respond by raising interest rates. However, Russia’s invasion severely complicates the picture, leaving these banks stuck between a rock and a hard place in how best to tackle rising prices while not piling more economic uncertainty at these already troubled times. Gold Price Analysis Gold has seen a huge rush of support for the metal, with a dramatic increase in trading volumes, as investors flee to the ultimate safe haven asset at a time of geopolitical crisis. This upswing in buying activity pushed the price of gold well above $1,900 an ounce to levels not seen for 14 months. However, Wednesday has seen a slight pullback with the sell-off on equities showing signs of slowing. Gold ($/g) - 15 minutes chart from Kinesis Exchange It is worth noting that despite the huge demand for gold and resultant large price gain, the sheer size of the gold market means that the precious metal hasn’t yet entered into overbought territory according to RSI indicators. This suggests that there is more upside potential for gold with $2,000 an ounce still possible but it will need to strike while the metal is hot with bearish factors such as central banks’ raising rates to tackle inflation as well as the prospect of the Russian central bank selling off its gold to stave a currency crisis looming on the horizon. Silver Price Analysis Silver has also enjoyed healthy gains, with the price trading well above $25 an ounce. However, like gold, the price has dropped back slightly from the highs seen on Tuesday. While silver did manage to climb above the $25.40 level that represented a notable resistance level, it only achieved $25.60 before falling back. This suggests that this is silver’s current natural ceiling with a few attempts over recent months to climb have fallen down around this level. Find out more about what Kinesis has to offer Learn More Rupert is a Market Analyst for Kinesis Money, responsible for updating the community with insights and analysis on the gold and silver markets. He brings with him a breadth of experience inwriting about energy and commodities having worked as an oil markets reporter and then precious metals reporter during the seven years he worked at Bloomberg News. As well as market analysis, Rupert writes longer-form thought leadership pieces on topics ranging from carbon markets, the growth of renewableenergy and the challenges of avoiding greenwash while investing sustainably.

Rupert Rowling
Rupert Rowling

02/03/2022

Gold & Silver March outlook – Monthly Review – 2022

In our inaugural monthly exploration of the gold and silver markets, we review February, then examine the macroeconomic trends with a focus on the month ahead. We then discuss the gold & silver markets starting with a brief review of price action and highlights during the month. Upside and downside risks are then highlighted before finishing by providing an outlook for the month ahead. Macroeconomic Update Worries are mounting that higher interest rates in the United States could hinder economic growth (recession/stagflation fears) and the potential for an inflation-induced monetary policy error, is increasing. Additionally, a prolonged Russia-Ukraine crisis dragging in the West and intensifying geopolitical tensions is a notable black swan event that could further undermine global economic growth, embellishing the role of gold as a safe haven. The minutes of January’s FOMC meeting gave a clear indicator of the Federal Reserve’s likely trajectory for increasing interest rates this year. While the committee decided to keep the interest rate unchanged for now, “with inflation well above 2 per cent and a strong labour market, the Committee expects it will soon be appropriate to raise the target range for the federal funds rate.” The central bank will also be ending its net asset purchases, further underlining its hawkish pivot. While central banks are primed to increase rates to tackle rising prices, January’s JP Morgan Global Manufacturing PMI was a reminder that the global recovery from the pandemic remains fragile. While the PMI continued the run of growth to a 19th successive month, the figure of 53.2 in January was the lowest for 15 months with JP Morgan calling it a “disappointment” that suggests the manufacturing sector is “seeing a drag”. However, a more positive strand was that future output PMI increased, suggesting the disappointment may be temporary. Gold Gold was firmer in February with the price bouncing back above $1,860 and towards the $1,900 level as appetite for safe-haven assets returned after NATO warned that Russia was continuing to build up its military presence near the border with Ukraine. When Russia did then invade Ukraine towards the end of the month, the gold price jumped above $1,970. Geopolitical rallies tend not to last unless they manage to push prices to levels where momentum and technical buying kicks in (see chart). Consequently, gold gave back its momentum-based gains but has broken out from within the large symmetrical triangle that has dominated for 11-months. Gold price over the past 12 months - $/g chart from Kinesis Exchange Looking further ahead, the London Bullion Market Association’s forecast survey, which was carried out before Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, predicted prices to be mostly unchanged this year compared to 2021’s average price. The main drivers, according to the 34 analysts surveyed, will be the Fed’s monetary policy, inflation and the performance of equity markets. The LBMA survey did not consider geopolitical tension as a major driver, illustrating how a week can be a long time in markets! Geopolitical tension is certainly gold’s key driver right now and this is supported by healthy fundamentals for the metal with strong jewellery demand from China during Chinese New Year, which was 12% higher than the previous year, according to Heraeus Precious Metals. 2022 is the Year of the Tiger with the World Gold Council suggesting that gold will be a vital asset to protect Chinese investors this year with the nation’s economy facing the dual threat of a slowdown in growth and rising inflation. Upside risks GeopoliticsSlower than expected US interest rate hikesStronger inflationSlower economic growth (higher probability of recession or stagflation)Stock market downturn Downside risks Aggressive US interest rate hikesFaster economic growth (lower probability of recession)Riskier assets perform stronger – stock markets and BitcoinInvestor demand weakerUS dollar strength The month ahead for gold Gold has made a strong start to the year and is outperforming traditional assets such as bonds and equities, as worried investors seek safe havens to store their cash. Gold has regained its lustre on the back of spiralling worries over Russia's invasion of Ukraine, concern that higher US rates could pull the break on the post-Covid economic bounce back, and the potential for an inflation-induced monetary policy error. The correlation relationship between real interest rates and precious metals has started to weaken amid concerns about the economic outlook and rising prices. Typically, inflation-adjusted rates are inversely correlated with gold. This is because higher interest rates make non-interest-bearing assets such as gold less attractive as the opportunity cost of holding gold increases. The gold price has remained resilient even though real rates are higher. Also, there is a realization that gold has rallied during recent tightening cycles. In a cycle of low and negative real interest rates and a hedge against economic, macro, and geopolitical uncertainty, gold is likely to remain solidly underpinned. Silver The past month: Having held short-term support at $21.94 silver prices rallied steadily on rising geopolitical tensions and expectations of stronger physical and investment demand. The silver price almost completely followed the fluctuations of the gold market and surged above the important $25 level in late February as Russia launched an invasion of Ukraine. History points out that a price surge prompted by geopolitical tensions is rarely sustained and, as a result, silver retrenched towards $23 on profit-taking as gold relinquished much of its risk premium. Silver price over the past 12 months - $/oz chart from Kinesis Exchange In the LBMA’s forecast survey, analysts are expecting silver to average $23.54 an ounce this year, a 6.4% drop from last year’s average price. While the analysts may be bearish on silver’s outlook, the physical market is looking more buoyant with the Silver Institute forecasting demand for the metal to exceed 1.1 billion ounces on rising demand from the industrial, jewellery and investment sectors. Heraeus was similarly positive with both institutions citing the growth in the installation of photovoltaic systems and the continued rollout of the 5G network as supportive for silver. Couple that the increased demand with dwindling supply with Fresnillo - the world’s largest primary silver producer, reducing its production guidance for 2022 - and silver looks fundamentally supported. Upside risks Investor demandStronger physical demandGreen energy applicationsStronger economic activityRising gold prices Downside risks Increase in mine supplyIncrease in recyclingUS dollar strengthDownturn in global commodity and equity marketsFalling gold prices The month ahead for silver Rebounding industrial activity and economic growth is likely to bolster the demand for silver from the jewellery sector. The grey metal also has more industrial applications than gold and is a fundamental raw material for green technologies such as electric vehicles, renewable energy, and others. Solid demand from the industrial sector is likely to maintain the silver market is a small deficit for the time being. But inventories of the metal are not lacking, hence the undersupply is unlikely to widen just yet. An eventual move to new highs for the year would clear the way for a push to the November high at $25.40, which is the confirmation point of the double bottom. Given the bullish outlook for gold, it seems that silver’s downside is probably limited. Dips back to the $23 are likely to be viewed as buying opportunities. Find out more about what Kinesis has to offer Learn More Rupert is a Market Analyst for Kinesis Money, responsible for updating the community with insights and analysis on the gold and silver markets. He brings with him a breadth of experience inwriting about energy and commodities having worked as an oil markets reporter and then precious metals reporter during the seven years he worked at Bloomberg News. As well as market analysis, Rupert writes longer-form thought leadership pieces on topics ranging from carbon markets, the growth of renewableenergy and the challenges of avoiding greenwash while investing sustainably.

Rupert Rowling
Rupert Rowling

01/03/2022