Are we in a bull or bear market for silver?

Bull and bear markets are terms often heard to describe sustained market moves, but what do they actually mean? And is silver in either of them right now?

Read on to find out what bear and bull markets are, why we’re in a silver bull market, current factors influencing the silver price, and whether investing in silver makes sense for you.

What is a bull market and a bear market?

A bull market is a market that has gained by at least 20% from its most recent low. By contrast, a bear market is a market that has fallen by at least 20% from its most recent high.

A bull market is so-called because a bull on the attack will drive its horns upwards towards its foe, so the bull is often considered a symbol of a rising market. 

A bear is attributed to a falling market as an angry ursine will stand on its hind legs and strike downwards with its great paws at an enemy or prey.

As a result, a bullish investor is someone who is optimistic about market conditions and anticipates further gains, while a bearish one is pessimistic and expects markets to decline.

How long do bear and bull markets last?

Bull and bear markets can last for a few weeks up to multiple decades. Here are recent examples of silver bear and bull markets from 1970 to today:

How long do bear markets for silver last?

Since 1970, silver has been in two prolonged bear markets. 

In this first instance, the price of silver hit $49.45 per ounce in February 1980 before falling to $5.00 per ounce in 1982. The futures price hit $50.35 per ounce on COMEX.

This event, now referred to as Silver Thursday, when three brothers attempted to corner the gold and silver markets. They eventually ended up holding a third of the entire world’s supply not in the hands of governments. 

The brothers misjudged the markets and were subject to a huge margin call they were unable to meet. The price crashed back down to $5, a reversion to the price before the speculation began.

Silver’s second bear market started in April 2011 and lasted for four years. The rise in the silver price was unusual because, from around 2004-2005, there was a significant annual oversupply of the metal. 

The price reached $49.50 in April 2011, just above silver’s previous high. Between 2011 and 2015, the price fell to $13.82. 

There was also a short-term bear market between September 2020 and September 2021 when the price dropped from $28.00 to $17.00

How long do bull markets for silver last?

Since 1970, there have been multiple occasions where there was a bull market for silver.

In October 1971, the price was $1.31. By May 1974, the price had quadrupled to around $5.20. After three more years hovering around that level, the events leading up to Silver Thursday were set in train, leading, as mentioned, the price to hit $49.45 in 1980.

There was a mini-bull market in 1987 which saw the price rise from $5.50 in March to over $8.00 in May.

Since 2020, there have been two bull markets. First, on 25 March 2020, the price bottomed out at $13.96 as governments began restricting personal and business freedoms in response to the COVID-19 pandemic. The price rose to $28.00+ by September that year.

The market then turned bear, as we discussed above. Then, from its September 2022 price of $17.00, the price has risen and remains over $30.00 so we’re still technically in a bull market.

Are we in a bull or bear market today for silver?

We are in a bull market for silver. Recent price jumps mean that we’re not in a bear market. This is just as many silver bulls predicted.

Silver has had an excellent start to the year with the price shooting up since February 2024. It dipped briefly in May but it’s more than recovered from those losses.

Recent Silver Price

Many analysts, when asked if 2024 would be a bull or bear market for silver, predicted a great year for the precious metal.

Investing Haven predicted a price of $34.70, a confident prediction that leaves us in no doubt where they are on whether we are in a bear or bull market. 

They base their forecast on the USD’s lack of momentum, inflation, toppy yields and the secular market in gold. Coin Price Forecast expects silver to end the year slightly higher at $35.11. 

Most bullish of all is Fitri Wulandari at Techopedia. She predicted a price range of $27.20 to $40.00. Even at the lower end of her predictions, that would place silver in a bull market because its most recent low was $21.05 on October 3rd, 2023. 

She bases her optimism on continued uncertainty over a Fed rate cut, persistent undersupply and robust industrial demand.

The LBMA survey of analysts weren’t as optimistic, expecting silver to average out at $24.80 across the year. However, some analysts suggested a low of £18 for the year and others a high of $32.

Silver Price Predictions for 2025

Fitri Wulandari expects market silver prices to stay within a $28.50 to $40.00 range over 2025. Investing Haven predicts their second target range of $48.00 to $50.00 by mid-2025. Coin Price Forecast is forecasting a $38.83 closing price at the end of 2025.

One of the main drivers of this positive outlook is the demand for the metal in the energy transition with silver conductive qualities seeing it used in photovoltaics and in the batteries of electric vehicles. Industrial giant Heraeus forecast PV demand for gold and silver to remain high with concerns over the health of the global economy.

As Douglas Turner, Head of Content for Kinesis, explains:

“Silver’s material properties include its unsurpassed conductivity of heat and electricity, its malleability, its sensitivity to light, its antibacterial qualities and its high reflectivity.”

Because of this, the demand for silver will almost always be high because of its varied use cases. 

Other factors affecting the silver market

Recent history shows how tied up silver’s performance is to the Fed’s fund rate. While previously the US central bank’s interest rate hikes and hawkish rhetoric outweighed silver’s strong fundamental outlook, the potential for upcoming interest rate cuts could shift this dynamic. 

A more dovish Fed stance may provide support for silver prices. This could push the silver price higher, pushing it beyond its recent high of around $32.00 per ounce.

The supply-demand imbalance is maybe the strongest argument for imminent price rises and a continued bull market. In 2024, the world needed 215.3 million troy ounces than miners could produce, 17% up on the previous year. 

Is investing in silver right for you?

Even though we’re currently in a silver bull market, some analysts might still argue that this is not reflective of the strong fundamental case for investing in the metal. That said, markets are now recognising the potential of silver even with concerns about global interest rate trends.

This could mean that, even at its current high levels following significant recent price appreciation, there may be much further to go in this bull run.

On the Kinesis platform, investors have the opportunity to purchase fully allocated silver in the form of Kinesis silver (KAG), which upon purchase, they become the sole legal title owner of. Kinesis silver is vaulted in a fully insured, secure and audited global vault network and can be redeemed at any time. 

Irrespective of the short to medium-term price outlook, silver can play a role in any investor’s portfolio by offering diversification away from pure equities with the metal often performing well at times of stock market jitters.

Its much lower price compared with its precious metal peer gold means the barriers to entry for an investor are far lower with silver offering many of the same qualities as gold, with the added benefit of its exposure to the key industrial shift of our time, the energy transition away from fossil fuels in favour of renewable options.

Rupert is a Market Analyst for Kinesis Money, responsible for updating the community with insights and analysis on the gold and silver markets. He brings with him a breadth of experience in writing about energy and commodities having worked as an oil markets reporter and then precious metals reporter during the seven years he worked at Bloomberg News. 

As well as market analysis, Rupert writes longer-form thought leadership pieces on topics ranging from carbon markets, the growth of renewable energy and the challenges of avoiding greenwashing while investing sustainably.

This publication is for informational purposes only and is not intended to be a solicitation, offering or recommendation of any security, commodity, derivative, investment management service or advisory service and is not commodity trading advice. This publication does not intend to provide investment, tax or legal advice on either a general or specific basis.