Silver Price News: Future Trade Tariffs Still Weigh on Silver

While incoming global growth surprises have tipped into positive territory for the first time since June in recent weeks, markets’ attention remains firmly fixed on the prospects for further trade disruption under a second Trump presidency.

However, this would merely represent a continuation of the deglobalization of trade seen in recent years, with increased onshoring and ‘friend shoring’ of global supply chains and record levels of trade disputes referred to by the World Trade Organisation. With US trade policy unlikely to crystallize until well into 2025, this is likely to remain an overhang for silver investors. Silver starts Monday trading at $30.6/toz.

Flows and Positioning

Unsurprisingly, the most recent Commitments of Traders report from the CFTC, published late on Friday, saw a further reduction of net speculative long silver positions. These now lie some 28% below the 56-month high registered at the end of October and consistent with the levels seen in late September when the silver price was also in the $30/toz-$31/toz range. Recent flow data from physical silver ETCs/ETFs also suggests continued outflows, reinforcing a bearish flow picture.

Technical Analysis

Silver’s technical position is somewhat similar to gold’s with the metal trading around one-month lows and recent trading appearing to invalidate minor ascending horizontal support at $30.74/toz. However, downside support is relatively weaker, with minor ascending support at $29.09/toz and major horizontal support at $28.83/toz.

Thus, even with the standard MACD and RSI at weak but improving levels, a consolidation looks less certain, supported by still healthy downside volumes. The upside is bound by an ascending 50-day Simple Moving Average at $31.66/toz and strong horizontal resistance at $32.06/toz.

Key Events Ahead

Aside from the central bank speeches noted in today’s gold report, Monday also brings Japan Machinery Orders and Euro Zone Balance of Trade reports for September. Both data points will give further clues to the current state of global industrial activity and silver demand, with markets likely to focus on downside risks given the current uncertainty over US trade policy. Tuesday provides further information on the health of the US economy in the form of October Housing Starts.