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Nevertheless, from a fundamental perspective, gold has remained relatively resilient, facing mixed US inflation data and, crucially, the Federal Reserve cutting its \u2018dot plot\u2019 projection of interest rates from an implied three-quarter-point cut to just one such cut this year. In mitigation, the Cleveland Fed inflation nowcast has moderated a little over the last week, but with the core PCE (the Federal Reserve\u2019s preferred inflation measure) still at 2.6%, this currently gives US rate-setters little scope for comfort.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Against this backdrop, one might expect that positive (downside) surprises for gold are now priced out of US rates markets. However, both 2-year and 10-year US Treasury yields have moved some 20bp lower this week, leaving a rebounding dollar as the only rate hawkish signal. CME FedWatch suggests futures are still pricing a significant (c. 30%) probability of more than one quarter-point cut in US rates by the end of 2024, little changed from a week ago.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The market calendar for today is quite light, with only May US import prices and June Michigan Consumer Sentiment prints likely to be of some interest to gold investors.<\/p>\n\n\n\t\t\t