{"id":126056,"date":"2024-07-02T10:04:38","date_gmt":"2024-07-02T10:04:38","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/kinesis.money\/?p=126056"},"modified":"2024-07-02T14:24:23","modified_gmt":"2024-07-02T14:24:23","slug":"gold-price-forecast-july-2024","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/kinesis.money\/pl\/market-analysis\/gold-news\/gold-price-forecast-july-2024\/","title":{"rendered":"Gold Price Forecast \u2013 July 2024"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-key-takeaways\">Key Takeaways<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Rate markets are pushing back against a more hawkish Fed as gold trades flat in June.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Central Banks\u2019 long-term appetite for gold remains, despite PBOC pause.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Gold price volatility over the last week has left its technical position highly uncertain.&nbsp;<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-markets-reject-a-hawkish-fed-nbsp\">Markets Reject a Hawkish Fed&nbsp;<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>June saw the US Federal Reserve meet to discuss rate policy, update its economic projections and renew its \u2018dot plot\u2019. While the rate decision itself (rates on hold) was widely anticipated, the accompanying statement and \u2018dot plot\u2019 were unexpectedly hawkish. The FOMC doubted that inflation was making sufficient progress in falling sustainably to target, slashing the median number of <a href=\"http:\/\/www.federalreserve.gov\/monetarypolicy\/files\/fomcprojtabl20240612.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">implied quarter-point cuts in 2024<\/a> from three in its March \u2018dot plot\u2019 to just one.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Unsurprisingly, this hawkish pivot stalled an incipient recovery in gold prices. However, the Fed\u2019s view was quickly rejected by markets as US rates have eased over the month with both <a href=\"https:\/\/home.treasury.gov\/resource-center\/data-chart-center\/interest-rates\/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&amp;field_tdr_date_value=2024\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">2-year and 10-year US Treasury yields<\/a> somewhat lower and futures are pricing in a c. 60% probability of more than one rate cut in 2024. Accordingly, the strengthening of the US dollar in June should be viewed as evidence of still heightened geopolitical risk, rather than a rate-driven phenomenon. Dovish rate markets certainly helped gold trade essentially flat on the month.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-central-bank-demand-short-term-pause-long-term-growth\">Central Bank Demand: Short-Term Pause, Long-Term Growth<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Gold was impacted in June by the surprise news that the People\u2019s Bank of China had halted gold purchases in May after eighteen straight months of net purchases. It remains to be seen how this has impacted more recent aggregate flows of physical gold into central banks\u2019 vaults as data is typically reported with a 1\u20132-month lag. However, given that central bank purchases are seen as a key support for gold, the market reaction was understandable.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Subsequently, however, the 2024 Central Bank Gold Reserves Survey (CBGR) published by the World Gold Council suggests that central banks\u2019 gold demand is set to continue over the short to medium term. On a 12-month horizon, 29% of respondents expected to purchase gold, while 81% expected gold reserves to rise. Over the medium term, the CBGR revealed that 62% of respondents thought US dollars would be a smaller proportion of reserves in five years, while 69% thought the corresponding share of gold would increase. Moreover, the incentive for central banks to diversify reserve assets has probably grown following the EU\u2019s move to use part of Russia\u2019s frozen reserve assets as collateral for a loan to Ukraine and the US Congressional Budget Office (CBO) warned over a ballooning US national debt.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-technical-analysis\">Technical Analysis<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Gold decisively broke key resistance on 20 June at the then 50-day Simple Moving Average of $2343\/toz on, coinciding with a downtrend line from the 20 May and 7 June peaks. However, this was promptly reversed the next day and gold now trades under a declining 50-day Simple Moving Average at $2341\/toz with neutral momentum.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>While this move appears to invalidate a previously mooted bearish head and shoulders pattern with a neckline at $2280\/toz, we cannot discount the possibility that a more complex topping pattern is being formed with the same neckline. If breached, the next primary levels of support are at the 0.618 and 1.0 Fibonacci Retracement from the all-time high on 20 May at $2174\/toz and $2108\/toz respectively. Conversely, sustained strength above c. $2250\/toz might provide a platform to once again move towards recent highs.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-key-drivers-in-july\">Key Drivers in July<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Upcoming events for gold investors include: Euro Zone June flash Inflation Rate for on 2 July, US June ISM Services PMI for June and FOMC Minutes on 3 July, June US employment data on July, Fed Chair Powell Testimony to Congress on 9 July, June US CPI data on 11 July, June US Retail Sales on 16 July, ECB interest rate decision on 18 July, June US Core PCE Inflation on 26 June and US Federal Reserve rate decision on 31 July.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-citations\">Citations<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>1. <a href=\"http:\/\/www.federalreserve.gov\/monetarypolicy\/files\/fomcprojtabl20240612.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">www.federalreserve.gov\/monetarypolicy\/files\/fomcprojtabl20240612.pdf<\/a>&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>2. <a href=\"https:\/\/home.treasury.gov\/resource-center\/data-chart-center\/interest-rates\/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&amp;field_tdr_date_value=2024\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">https:\/\/home.treasury.gov\/resource-center\/data-chart-center\/interest-rates\/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&amp;field_tdr_date_value=2024<\/a>&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>3. <a href=\"https:\/\/www.cmegroup.com\/markets\/interest-rates\/cme-fedwatch-tool.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">https:\/\/www.cmegroup.com\/markets\/interest-rates\/cme-fedwatch-tool.html<\/a>&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>4. <a href=\"https:\/\/www.gold.org\/goldhub\/data\/2024-central-bank-gold-reserves-survey#:~:text=According%20to%20the%202024%20Central,began%20this%20survey%20in%202018\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">https:\/\/www.gold.org\/goldhub\/data\/2024-central-bank-gold-reserves-survey#:~:text=According%20to%20the%202024%20Central,began%20this%20survey%20in%202018<\/a>&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>5. <a href=\"https:\/\/budget.house.gov\/press-release\/congressional-budget-office-updates-baseline-deficit-spending-is-27-percent-higher_than-previously-estimated\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">https:\/\/budget.house.gov\/press-release\/congressional-budget-office-updates-baseline-deficit-spending-is-27-percent-higher_than-previously-estimated<\/a>&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\t\t\t<section class=\"ktp-block ktp2_0-block\">\n\t\t\t<div class=\"\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"ktp-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"ktp-grid\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"col-span-4 md:col-span-8 lg:col-span-10 lg:col-start-2  pb-4\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"p-container body-2xs neutral text-brand-primary-midnight-275 \">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<p><em><a href=\"https:\/\/kinesis.money\/author\/mikeingram\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Mike<\/a> is a market strategist and media commentator with 30 years of experience analysing precious metals markets.\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0He developed his expertise working as an investment banker in emerging markets such as South Africa, Russia and Chile. His focus on precious metals was extended through subsequent work within private wealth management and his own research consultancy.\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0During this time, he covered the gold, silver, platinum and palladium markets.<\/em><\/p>\n<p><em>This publication is for informational purposes only and is not intended to be a solicitation, offering or recommendation of any security, commodity, derivative, investment management service or advisory service and is not commodity trading advice. This publication does not intend to provide investment, tax or legal advice on either a general or specific basis.<\/em><\/p>\n<p><em>Read our Editorial Guidelines\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/kinesis.money\/editorial-guidelines\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">here.<\/a><\/em><\/p>\n\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/section>\n\t","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>June saw the US Federal Reserve meet to discuss rate policy, update its economic projections and renew its \u2018dot plot\u2019. While the rate decision itself (rates on hold) was widely anticipated, the accompanying statement and \u2018dot plot\u2019 were unexpectedly hawkish. The FOMC doubted that inflation was making sufficient progress in falling sustainably to target, slashing the median number of implied quarter-point cuts in 2024 from three in its March \u2018dot plot\u2019 to just one.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":51,"featured_media":126059,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":true,"footnotes":""},"categories":[215],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-126056","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-gold-news"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v27.2 (Yoast SEO v27.2) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Gold Price Forecast \u2013 July 2024 | Kinesis<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Markets reject a hawkish Fed as the gold price stalls. Despite a short-term pause, central banks eye gold reserves for the medium term. 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