{"id":141540,"date":"2024-11-08T12:09:45","date_gmt":"2024-11-08T12:09:45","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/kinesis.money\/?p=141540"},"modified":"2024-11-08T12:09:50","modified_gmt":"2024-11-08T12:09:50","slug":"us-presidential-results-gold-price","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/kinesis.money\/de\/blog\/gold\/us-presidential-results-gold-price\/","title":{"rendered":"How the 2024 US Election Result Could Impact Gold Prices"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>The results are in. Donald J. Trump has been elected as the 47<sup>th<\/sup> President of the United States of America. Significantly, the Republican Party has also retaken the Senate and at the time of writing, appears to have a reasonable chance of retaining control of the House of Representatives.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>But how does this impact current and prospective gold investment? We explore the factors that will help shape its price performance going forward.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-gold-as-an-electoral-safe-haven\">Gold as an Electoral Safe Haven<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>The polls leading up to the presidential election had been extremely close and the outcome highly uncertain. With suggestions that the result might be contested \u2013 as they were in 2000, 2016 and 2020 &#8211; there is little doubt that gold attracted investment as an electoral hedge.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>However, the result appears to have been decisive, with a likely \u2018Red Sweep\u2019 control of both Congress (Senate &amp; House) and the Presidency. Moreover, with a sizeable lead in the popular vote also confirmed, this hedge is now being unwound, temporarily reinforcing a marginally lower <a href=\"https:\/\/kinesis.money\/gold-price\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">gold price<\/a> driven by other factors.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-gold-and-the-us-dollar-under-trump\">Gold and the US Dollar Under Trump<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>The gold price traditionally has an inverse relationship to the US Dollar. Much of this is purely translational \u2013 gold is typically priced in US dollars so a stronger dollar will result in a lower US dollar gold price.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>But a stronger US dollar (and weaker gold) is also associated with stronger US growth, higher US inflation, and higher US interest rates, all of which we are likely to see under a Trump presidency as we explain further below.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>However, it is Trump\u2019s apparent willingness to deploy trade import tariffs that have forex markets most worried. Such tariffs will reduce the competitiveness of exporters to the US, pushing their domestic currencies down in the process. Conversely, the US dollar will strengthen, putting pressure on US dollar gold prices.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>We have already seen the US Dollar Index reach a four-month high post-election, though this is arguably the continuation of a trend seen since late September. A wildcard is Trump\u2019s support for cryptocurrency deregulation, which will actively undermine the US dollar and provide more support for gold.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-gold-and-inflation-under-trump\">Gold and Inflation Under Trump<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Historically gold has had a positive correlation with inflation as the former is seen as a long-term store of wealth against the diminishing purchasing power of fiat currencies.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The proposed imposition of significant import tariffs could certainly boost US inflation as the tariffs are paid by the importing party and these are likely to eventually get passed on to consumers as importers seek to restore profit margins.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Thus far, however, it is unclear whether this is being priced in. The expected 5-year \u2018breakeven\u2019 inflation derived from rates markets has moved up to levels last seen in early July, but this trend has been in train since early September, supported by a resumption of \u2018sticky\u2019 US inflation data. Nevertheless, it is reasonable to suggest that a Trump presidency has at least increased the gold-supportive upside risk of US inflation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-gold-and-us-interest-rates-under-trump\">Gold and US Interest Rates Under Trump<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Higher US rates are usually associated with poorer gold returns because this increases the opportunity cost of holding zero-yielding assets. However, the relationship is more complex, with real (inflation-adjusted) long-term (10 years-plus) rates being the most significant.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Thus far, it\u2019s unclear that Trump\u2019s election has influenced long-term real rates, although if, as suspected, we do see greater inflationary pressure, the US Federal Reserve will respond by tightening monetary policy and this is likely to feed through to higher real long-term rates.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>However, it is also possible that Trump\u2019s push to make the Federal Government more efficient will help to shrink the huge US budget deficit, even net of tax cuts. If this successfully delivers higher sustainable growth, this should relieve stress on long-term real rates. We note that we have seen the market pricing in a lower probability of US debt default in recent days. Until we have more policy details, the impact on real long-term rates can be viewed as neutral.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-geopolitical-risk-under-trump\">Geopolitical Risk Under Trump<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Higher levels of geopolitical risk have historically been viewed as a support for gold prices, as the yellow metal is viewed as a \u2018safe-haven\u2019 asset. While such risk factors are difficult to quantify with any precision, elevated geopolitical risk is thought to have been a significant support for gold prices over the last 2-3 years.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>A Trump presidency is likely to see a more activist foreign policy with a determination to reach a settlement in the Russia\/Ukraine war; the weakening of Iran and its proxies through renewed sanctions and clearer support for Israel; moves to contain a resurgent North Korean and a more assertive stance against China, initially through previously referenced import tariffs.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Such an approach will likely raise geopolitical tensions in the short term (supporting gold) but is likely to leave China as the only significant flashpoint over the medium-long term. However, this is very likely to remain unresolved as the US and China remain ideologically opposed and locked in a battle for global dominance. The status of Taiwan will be increasingly focal here.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Overall, we would argue that a Trump presidency will remain supportive of a further appreciation of gold, though the dynamics will certainly change from those that we have been accustomed to over the last 2-3 years. The situation will become clearer as policies are fleshed out and start to be enacted from January 2025, with geopolitical risk likely to remain the single biggest uncertainty.<\/p>\n\n\n\t\t\t<section class=\"ktp-block ktp2_0-block\">\n\t\t\t<div class=\"\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"ktp-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"ktp-grid\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"col-span-4 md:col-span-8 lg:col-span-10 lg:col-start-2  pb-4\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"p-container body-2xs neutral text-brand-primary-midnight-275 \">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<p><em><a href=\"https:\/\/kinesis.money\/author\/mikeingram\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Mike<\/a> is a market strategist and media commentator with 30 years of experience analysing precious metals markets.\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0He developed his expertise working as an investment banker in emerging markets such as South Africa, Russia and Chile. His focus on precious metals was extended through subsequent work within private wealth management and his own research consultancy.\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0During this time, he covered the gold, silver, platinum and palladium markets.<\/em><\/p>\n<p><em>This publication is for informational purposes only and is not intended to be a solicitation, offering or recommendation of any security, commodity, derivative, investment management service or advisory service and is not commodity trading advice. This publication does not intend to provide investment, tax or legal advice on either a general or specific basis.<\/em><\/p>\n<p><em>Read our Editorial Guidelines\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/kinesis.money\/editorial-guidelines\/\">here.<\/a><\/em><\/p>\n\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/section>\n\t","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The results are in. Donald J. Trump has been elected as the 47th President of the United States of America. Significantly, the Republican Party has also retaken the Senate and at the time of writing, appears to have a reasonable chance of retaining control of the House of Representatives. But how does this impact current [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":51,"featured_media":141541,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":true,"footnotes":""},"categories":[189],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-141540","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-gold"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v27.4 (Yoast SEO v27.4) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>How the 2024 US Election Result Could Impact Gold Prices - Kinesis<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Find out how the US 2024 presidential election result could impact gold prices as well as inflation, dollar strength and geopolitical tensions.\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"de_DE\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"How the 2024 US Election Result Could Impact Gold Prices\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Find out how the US 2024 presidential election result could impact gold prices as well as inflation, dollar strength and geopolitical tensions.\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/kinesis.money\/blog\/gold\/us-presidential-results-gold-price\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"Kinesis\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2024-11-08T12:09:45+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2024-11-08T12:09:50+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/kinesis.money\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/11\/feature-image-how-the-2024-us-election-result-could-impact-gold-prices-1.jpg\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"1920\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"1058\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" content=\"image\/jpeg\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"Mike Ingram\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:description\" content=\"Find out how the US 2024 presidential election result could impact gold prices as well as inflation, dollar strength and geopolitical tensions.\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Verfasst von\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"Mike Ingram\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Gesch\u00e4tzte Lesezeit\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"5 Minuten\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\\\/\\\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"Article\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/kinesis.money\\\/blog\\\/gold\\\/us-presidential-results-gold-price\\\/#article\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/kinesis.money\\\/blog\\\/gold\\\/us-presidential-results-gold-price\\\/\"},\"author\":{\"name\":\"Mike Ingram\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/kinesis.money\\\/#\\\/schema\\\/person\\\/589c930415cb13add9bd2be349d91f61\"},\"headline\":\"How the 2024 US Election Result Could Impact Gold Prices\",\"datePublished\":\"2024-11-08T12:09:45+00:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2024-11-08T12:09:50+00:00\",\"mainEntityOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/kinesis.money\\\/blog\\\/gold\\\/us-presidential-results-gold-price\\\/\"},\"wordCount\":923,\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/kinesis.money\\\/blog\\\/gold\\\/us-presidential-results-gold-price\\\/#primaryimage\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"https:\\\/\\\/kinesis.money\\\/wp-content\\\/uploads\\\/2024\\\/11\\\/feature-image-how-the-2024-us-election-result-could-impact-gold-prices-1.jpg\",\"articleSection\":[\"Gold\"],\"inLanguage\":\"de-DE\",\"copyrightYear\":\"2024\",\"copyrightHolder\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/kinesis.money\\\/#organization\"}},{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/kinesis.money\\\/blog\\\/gold\\\/us-presidential-results-gold-price\\\/\",\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/kinesis.money\\\/blog\\\/gold\\\/us-presidential-results-gold-price\\\/\",\"name\":\"How the 2024 US Election Result Could Impact Gold Prices - 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He developed his expertise working as an investment banker in emerging markets such as South Africa, Russia and Chile. His focus on precious metals was extended through subsequent work within private wealth management and his own research consultancy. During this time, he covered the gold, silver, platinum and palladium markets as well as companies such as Harmony Gold, Polymetal International, Goldfields Anglo-American, Anglo-American Platinum, Impala Platinum, AngloGold, Lonmin, Gencor, Polyus Gold, Norilsk Nickel, KGHM, Fresnillo and Codelco. His work today focuses on precious metals through a multi-asset investment framework, blending company and economic analysis. Mike is a regular contributor across a range of high-profile media outlets, including Bloomberg, Reuters, BBC, CNBC, CBS, ABC, The Financial Times, Investor\u2019s Chronicle, Portfolio Advisor, Citywire and The Wall Street Journal. 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