{"id":141217,"date":"2024-11-04T14:30:52","date_gmt":"2024-11-04T14:30:52","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/kinesis.money\/?p=141217"},"modified":"2024-11-04T14:36:55","modified_gmt":"2024-11-04T14:36:55","slug":"gold-forecast-november-2024","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/kinesis.money\/de\/market-analysis\/gold-news\/gold-forecast-november-2024\/","title":{"rendered":"Gold Price Forecast \u2013 November 2024"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-key-takeaways\">Key Takeaways<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Gold hits yet another all-time high above $2758\/toz in October<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>US rates and dollar are up, but inflation and global instability provide offsets<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Gold currently appears to have better technical support than silver<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-gold-at-another-high-more-to-come\">Gold at Another High \u2013 More to Come?<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Despite gold reaching yet another all-time high above $2758\/toz (1) in October, Bank of America has issued a report in recent days suggesting that it could reach $3000\/toz by 1H 2025. Citing its role as \u2018the ultimate perceived safe haven asset\u2019 the report also highlighted persistently large US budget deficits and ballooning public debt. Little relief is in sight, with the report noting that<em> \u2018Neither Kamala Harris nor Donald Trump seems to prioritize fiscal consolidation\u2019<\/em>.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>While the unsustainability of US public finances isn\u2019t new &#8211; we highlighted this as a gold price driver in <a href=\"https:\/\/kinesis.money\/market-analysis\/gold-news\/gold-price-forecast-july-2024\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">July\u2019s Gold Price Forecast<\/a> \u2013 it is worth underscoring that the balance of global economic policy is transitioning from extreme monetary (central bank) activism to extreme fiscal (budgetary) activism. The combination of higher \u2013 often non-productive \u2013 public expenditure, unfavourable demographics and higher real interest rates is likely to stress the global fiat currency system. This in turn, is likely to exacerbate trade and broader geopolitical tensions which are already apparent.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-us-rates-and-dollar-up-but-there-are-offsets\">US Rates and Dollar Up \u2013 But There Are Offsets<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>The market euphoria which greeted the US Fed\u2019s 0.5% \u2018jumbo\u2019 rate cut on 18 September quickly evaporated in October, driven by firmer US growth and higher inflation data. Having reached a two-year low at the end of September, US 2-Year Treasury yields \u2013 an indicator of near-term Fed policy \u2013 have risen by over 40bp so far in October (2). while CME FedWatch suggests that near-term rate cuts are now confined to 25bp in both November and December. In response, (3). the Dollar Index (DXY) has appreciated by c. 4%, additionally supported by dovish remarks from both the European Central Bank and the Bank of Japan.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>While such moves are bearish for non-yielding, dollar-denominated assets, such as gold, some mitigation is found when looking at long-term real (inflation-adjusted) rates, which are generally held to be a more important driver for gold valuation. Here, more than half of the rise in 10-year US Treasury nominal yields has been driven by a rise in expected (breakeven) inflation. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Higher inflation expectations are supportive of gold prices, offsetting much of the impact of higher (inflation-adjusted) rates. Combined with the broader economic dysfunction and geopolitical stresses described previously, the fundamental support for gold is stronger than it appears. Certainly, recent flow data on physical gold ETF\/ETCs (4) and gold futures positioning (5) suggests gold remains well bid by investors.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-technical-analysis\">Technical Analysis<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Gold entered October in a consolidation pattern initiated after the 26 September high, subsequently forming a bull flag with confirmatory volume in the first half of the month. Breakout occurred on 15 October with the 11-26 September uptrend establishing a primary (100% extension) price target of $2813\/toz. Gold has currently reverted to range-trading between the 38.2% and 61.5% Fibonacci extension levels of $2717\/toz and $2754\/toz respectively. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Both the RSI and the bearish engulfing candle on 23 October suggests some caution, though a sustained move above $2754\/toz and ascending minor oblique resistance $2792\/toz, clears the way to the $2813\/toz target. Additional support is offered at $2694\/toz (23.61% extension), $2680\/toz (20-day Simple Moving Average) $2673\/toz (major horizontal), $2667\/toz (major ascending oblique) and $2657\/toz (initial breakout).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-key-drivers-ahead\">Key Drivers Ahead<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Notable events ahead for gold investors include Q3 Flash US GDP data 30 October, October US Employment data and October US ISM Manufacturing PMI on 1 November, October US ISM Services PMI 5 and US Presidential Election 5 November, US FOMC Rate Decision &amp; Press Conference 7 November, October US Inflation Data and US Fed Presidents Musalem (centrist, non-voter) and Schmid (hawk, non-voter) speeches all on November 13, US Fed Chair Powell (centrist, voter) speech 14 November, October US Retail Sales 15 November, October US PCE Inflation data, US FOMC Minutes and November Flash Euro Zone Inflation data all on 27 November.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Citations<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<ol class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>1.<a href=\"https:\/\/www.lbma.org.uk\/prices-and-data\/precious-metal-prices#\/table\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">https:\/\/www.lbma.org.uk\/prices-and-data\/precious-metal-prices#\/table<\/a>\u00a0<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n\n\n\n<p>2.<a href=\"https:\/\/home.treasury.gov\/resource-center\/data-chart-center\/interest-rates\/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&amp;field_tdr_date_value=2024\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">https:\/\/home.treasury.gov\/resource-center\/data-chart-center\/interest-rates\/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&amp;field_tdr_date_value=2024<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>3.<a href=\"https:\/\/www.cmegroup.com\/markets\/interest-rates\/cme-fedwatch-tool.html?redirect=\/trading\/interest-rates\/countdown-to-fomc.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">https:\/\/www.cmegroup.com\/markets\/interest-rates\/cme-fedwatch-tool.html?redirect=\/trading\/interest-rates\/countdown-to-fomc.html<\/a>\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>4.<a href=\"https:\/\/www.gold.org\/goldhub\/data\/gold-etfs-holdings-and-flows\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">https:\/\/www.gold.org\/goldhub\/data\/gold-etfs-holdings-and-flows<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>5.<a href=\"https:\/\/www.cftc.gov\/dea\/options\/other_lof.htm\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">https:\/\/www.cftc.gov\/dea\/options\/other_lof.htm<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>6.<a href=\"https:\/\/www.imf.org\/en\/Publications\/WEO\/Issues\/2024\/10\/22\/world-economic-outlook-october-2024\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">https:\/\/www.imf.org\/en\/Publications\/WEO\/Issues\/2024\/10\/22\/world-economic-outlook-october-2024<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>7.<a href=\"https:\/\/www.trackinsight.com\/en\/compare-etfs\/PHAG,SSLV,OXA6,SLV,SIVR\">https:\/\/www.trackinsight.com\/en\/compare-etfs\/PHAG,SSLV,O<\/a><a href=\"https:\/\/www.trackinsight.com\/en\/compare-etfs\/PHAG,SSLV,OXA6,SLV,SIVR\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">X<\/a><a href=\"https:\/\/www.trackinsight.com\/en\/compare-etfs\/PHAG,SSLV,OXA6,SLV,SIVR\">A6,SLV,SIVR<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\t\t\t<section class=\"ktp-block ktp2_0-block\">\n\t\t\t<div class=\"\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"ktp-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"ktp-grid\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"col-span-4 md:col-span-8 lg:col-span-10 lg:col-start-2  pb-4\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"p-container body-2xs neutral text-brand-primary-midnight-275 \">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<p><em><a href=\"https:\/\/kinesis.money\/author\/mikeingram\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Mike<\/a>\u00a0is a market strategist and media commentator with 30 years of experience analysing precious metals markets.\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0He developed his expertise working as an investment banker in emerging markets such as South Africa, Russia and Chile. His focus on precious metals was extended through subsequent work within private wealth management and his own research consultancy.\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0During this time, he covered the gold, silver, platinum and palladium markets.<\/em><\/p>\n<p><em>This publication is for informational purposes only and is not intended to be a solicitation, offering or recommendation of any security, commodity, derivative, investment management service or advisory service and is not commodity trading advice. This publication does not intend to provide investment, tax or legal advice on either a general or specific basis.<\/em><\/p>\n<p><em>Read our Editorial Guidelines\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/kinesis.money\/zh-hans\/editorial-guidelines\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">here.<\/a><\/em><\/p>\n\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/section>\n\t\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Key Takeaways Gold at Another High \u2013 More to Come? Despite gold reaching yet another all-time high above $2758\/toz (1) in October, Bank of America has issued a report in recent days suggesting that it could reach $3000\/toz by 1H 2025. Citing its role as \u2018the ultimate perceived safe haven asset\u2019 the report also highlighted [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":51,"featured_media":141219,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":true,"footnotes":""},"categories":[215],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-141217","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-gold-news"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v27.2 (Yoast SEO v27.2) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Gold Price Forecast \u2013 November 2024 - Kinesis<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Find out the next moves for the gold price in November 2024, after all-time highs last month and the potential for $3,000\/oz in 2025. 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He has made notable guest appearances on the BBC, Channel 4, Reuters, Bloomberg, CNBC, Sky TV, ABC, CBS, Fox Business, Al Jazeera, AP, NTV, France 24, TRTs, and ZDF.","url":"https:\/\/kinesis.money\/de\/author\/mikeingram\/"}]}},"post_thumbnails":{"large":"https:\/\/kinesis.money\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/11\/GMF-gold-november-1.png","small":"https:\/\/kinesis.money\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/11\/nav-image-gold-2-3.jpg"},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/kinesis.money\/de\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/141217","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/kinesis.money\/de\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/kinesis.money\/de\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/kinesis.money\/de\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/51"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/kinesis.money\/de\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=141217"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/kinesis.money\/de\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/141217\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/kinesis.money\/de\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/141219"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/kinesis.money\/de\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=141217"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/kinesis.money\/de\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=141217"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/kinesis.money\/de\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=141217"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}